Match Analysis: Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Clayton Carpenter faces Jafel Filho in a UFC Flyweight bout with Carpenter slightly favored on the moneyline. Carpenter (8-1) is younger with higher significant strikes landed per minute, better accuracy, and stronger defense. Filho (16-4) is more experienced but lands fewer significant strikes and takes fewer per minute. Both use orthodox stance and are closely matched in height and reach.
Key Factors to Consider
- Carpenter boasts a high 3.91 significant strikes landed per minute at 55% accuracy, while Filho lands 1.92 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy. Defensively, Carpenter allows 2.75 strikes per minute but deflects 55%, Filho allows 1.63 strikes per minute with 47% deflection. Carpenter has younger age (29 vs. 32) and a recent KO win momentum.
- No direct previous bouts found between Carpenter and Filho.
- No reported injuries or recent layoffs affecting either fighter.
- Fight location in Rio may slightly favor Filho due to home crowd support and familiarity, but Carpenter appears mentally focused with stronger recent form.
- Both fighters highly motivated for UFC Rio event, Carpenter eager to solidify his rising status; Filho motivated to leverage experience against a younger contender.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -125 | Clayton Carpenter | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Clayton Carpenter -3.5 (150) | Clayton Carpenter -3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-195) | Over 2.5 rounds | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Clayton Carpenter 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 -9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Clayton Carpenter at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Clayton Carpenter to win by moneyline
Predicted Score: Clayton Carpenter wins by decision or late finish, total rounds: 3