Match Analysis: Charlie Radtke vs Daniel Frunza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Charlie Radtke, a versatile 35-year-old fighter with 10 wins in 15 pro bouts, faces 31-year-old striker Daniel Frunza who has 9 wins in 12 bouts. Radtke has shown balanced skills in striking and grappling with a recent KO win, while Frunza, a striker, is coming off a first-round TKO loss in his UFC debut.
Key Factors to Consider
- Radtke exhibits superior recent form with a May 2025 second-round KO over Mike Malott, reflecting both finishing ability and experience in the top promotion. Frunza suffered a decisive first-round TKO in April 2025 making his UFC debut.
- There are no recorded head-to-head matches between Radtke and Frunza, making this fight a fresh test of styles and strategy.
- No significant or reported injuries impacting performance for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue. Both fighters are competing on prelims with no known external distractions.
- Radtke aims to confirm his status as a rising UFC contender following his recent KO, while Frunza seeks redemption after a tough UFC debut loss, providing him motivation to improve.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlie Radtke: -180, Daniel Frunza: +150 | Charlie Radtke | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Charlie Radtke: -3.5 -115, Daniel Frunza: +3.5 -115 | Charlie Radtke -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -130, Under 1.5 rounds: +100 | Under 1.5 rounds | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlie Radtke -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Charlie Radtke to win by moneyline given his superior all-around skills, experience, and recent knockout success against a striker who was stopped early in his UFC debut.
Predicted Score: Charlie Radtke wins by TKO in Round 2