Match Analysis: Billy Goff vs Ramiz Brahimaj – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 2:40 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Billy Goff (9-3-0), a versatile switch striker, faces Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5-0), an orthodox grappler, in a welterweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs Barber. This matchup pits Goff's significant strike volume (8.56 per min, 46% accuracy) against Brahimaj's grappling and defensive approach (2.26 significant strikes per min, 44% accuracy). Goff is favored by bookmakers, indicating faith in his striking and activity over Brahimaj's grappling prowess[2][3][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Billy Goff lands nearly four times the significant strikes per minute as Brahimaj and has better offensive and defensive striking metrics. Brahimaj relies more on wrestling and ground control, but Goff's high-volume output makes him the more active fighter on the feet[2].
- No previous meetings between Goff and Brahimaj in MMA competition[2][3][4].
- No public injury reports for either fighter ahead of this bout[1][2][4].
- No major external factors reported; both fighters are healthy and fit for competition. This bout was rebooked due to previous visa and scheduling issues, but both are now set for this event[1][2].
- Goff seeks to build momentum and climb the welterweight rankings, while Brahimaj aims to prove his grappling can overcome high-level strikers and get back on track after mixed recent results[2][4].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Billy Goff: -355, Ramiz Brahimaj: 280 | Billy Goff | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Spread | Billy Goff: -3.5 (-195), Ramiz Brahimaj: +3.5 (140) | Billy Goff covers spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 1.5: -175, Under 1.5: 135 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Billy Goff -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 1.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Billy Goff is expected to win via decision or late stoppage, utilizing his high-volume striking and movement to dictate the pace. Brahimaj's best path is early takedowns and submission attempts, but Goff's defensive wrestling and high activity make him the safer pick[2][3][4].
Predicted Score: Billy Goff by decision (unanimous or split), 29-28