Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night event
Game Overview
Beneil Dariush (+158) faces Benoit Saint-Denis (-183) in a lightweight (155 lbs) matchup. Saint-Denis is favored as the stronger striker with recent momentum, while Dariush returns from a layoff but possesses superior grappling and submission skills. This is a competitive clash between contrasting fighting styles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dariush recently defeated Renato Moicano via unanimous decision at UFC 317 (Jun 2024), showcasing his ability to control fights over five rounds. Saint-Denis appears to be the more active competitor with recent fight activity and striking prowess. Dariush's extended layoff between fights raises questions about ring rust and timing.
- No previous head-to-head record exists between these fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct historical data to reference.
- No reported injuries for either fighter at this time. Both appear healthy and cleared to compete.
- The three-round format (typical for non-championship UFC bouts) favors aggressive, high-output strikers. Saint-Denis' striking advantages become more pronounced in shorter fights. Dariush's grappling and submission game may not have sufficient rounds to fully implement his strategy.
- Both fighters are competing at elite lightweight level with career trajectory implications. Saint-Denis carries favoritism and momentum. Dariush faces pressure to prove his recent layoff hasn't diminished his competitive edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dariush +158 / Saint-Denis -183 | Saint-Denis Win | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Dariush +3.5 (105) / Saint-Denis -3.5 (-135) | Saint-Denis -3.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds (-165) / Under 1.5 rounds (125) | Over 1.5 Rounds | β β β β β 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw -100% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Benoit Saint-Denis wins by decision or striking-based finish. The shorter three-round format, combined with Saint-Denis' striking advantages and recent activity, outweighs Dariush's superior grappling credentials.
Predicted Score: Saint-Denis 29-28 via Unanimous Decision or Saint-Denis TKO Round 2