Match Analysis: Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 2:35 PM UTC
- Location: Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
Flyweight bout at UFC 321 featuring Azat Maksum as a sizable betting favorite over Mitch Raposo, who is still seeking his first UFC win after a recent loss by split decision to Su Muadaerji at UFC 314[1]. Maksum’s market-implied win probability is significantly higher, and the under/over set at 2.5 rounds suggests the books expect a decision.
Key Factors to Consider
- Maksum shows strong recent form with a dominant betting profile (77.7% implied probability), while Raposo remains unproven in the UFC, having lost his debut in a close split decision[1].
- No prior head-to-head history.
- No significant injury news reported for either fighter.
- Fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, which is neutral territory. No major external factors identified.
- Maksum should be motivated to extend his strong debut performance, while Raposo is desperate for a UFC win to avoid potential roster cuts[1].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Azat Maksum -425, Mitch Raposo +330[1] | Azat Maksum wins | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Azat Maksum -5.5 -120, Mitch Raposo +5.5 -110 | Azat Maksum -5.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -180, Under 2.5 +140 | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Azat Maksum -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Azat Maksum is expected to win dominantly, most likely by decision, though a late finish is plausible. Raposo’s path to victory is narrow and would require a major upset.
Predicted Score: Azat Maksum by Unanimous Decision (30–27)
