Match Analysis: Amirkhan Buchaev vs Canon Swanson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Freedom Hall, Louisville, Kentucky
Game Overview
Amirkhan Buchaev faces Canon Swanson in a high-profile lightweight bout at LFA 210. Buchaev (2-0) is a rising Russian prospect with a spotless record, while Swanson (3-1) brings more experience and is favored by oddsmakers. Both fighters are eager to make an impression on the LFA stage, with Buchaev looking to remain undefeated and Swanson aiming to bounce back from a loss or continue his ascent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buchaev is undefeated at 2-0, showing early promise. Swanson is 3-1, suggesting more experience and a tested record. Buchaev’s youth and undefeated status indicate upside; Swanson’s experience (if any losses are recent) may signal vulnerability or, conversely, a higher level of competition.
- This is the first meeting between Buchaev and Swanson. No prior head-to-head data.
- No recent injury reports for either fighter. Both appear healthy for this bout.
- The event takes place in Louisville, Kentucky, offering no significant home advantage for either fighter. The main card is broadcast on UFC Fight Pass, increasing visibility and potential pressure.
- Buchaev is highly motivated to maintain his undefeated streak and build his reputation. Swanson is likely motivated to prove himself against a rising prospect and to re-enter the win column if coming off a loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buchaev: +200 | Swanson: -260 | Swanson is favored to win by decision or finish. | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Canon Swanson 101% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Canon Swanson at 101% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 50.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite being the underdog, Buchaev’s undefeated status and potential for improvement make him a live underdog. However, bookmakers and odds indicate Swanson is the favorite, likely due to his experience and overall record. The smart money leans toward Swanson, but Buchaev may surprise.
Predicted Score: This is a three-round MMA bout; there is no point-based score. Most likely outcome: Swanson wins by unanimous decision or late stoppage (confidence 75%).
