Match Analysis: Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
Amanda Ribas faces Tabatha Ricci in a UFC women's flyweight bout. Ribas has a clear physical and technical edge with a 5-inch reach advantage and better strike defense, while Ricci relies heavily on grappling but struggles against top-level wrestlers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ribas has lost three of her last four but shows strong striking accuracy (39%) and defense (stops 60% of strikes). Ricci lands a similar strike rate but absorbs significantly more (5.29/min). Ricci's recent wins were largely through wrestling, which may be neutralized by Ribas' excellent takedown defense.
- No direct past matchups between Ribas and Ricci; Ricci's closest fight against a fighter of Ribas' caliber ended in TKO loss, suggesting difficulty handling elite opponents like Ribas.
- No reported injuries for either fighter impacting this bout.
- Fight takes place at UFC Abu Dhabi in Etihad Arena; no known travel or acclimatization issues for either fighter.
- Ribas is motivated to rebound from recent losses against high-level competition, whereas Ricci aims to prove she can handle elite opponents but may be overmatched here.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Ribas -200, Ricci +170 | Amanda Ribas | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | No explicit -1.5 round spread odds available, inferred from fight style and odds | Amanda Ribas to win by 2+ rounds clear | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -550, Under 2.5 rounds +400 | Under 2.5 rounds | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Amanda Ribas 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 250% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 250% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 62.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Amanda Ribas to win by KO/TKO
Predicted Score: Amanda Ribas wins by KO/TKO in Round 2