Match Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 3:45 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
The UFC 317 co-main event features Alexandre Pantoja defending his flyweight title against Kai Kara-France. This is a highly anticipated matchup with a history dating back to their TUF 24 quarterfinal meeting in 2016 where Pantoja won by decision. Pantoja is the reigning champion riding a seven-fight win streak, known for his elite grappling and submission skills. Kara-France is a powerful striker with notable knockout wins, posing a puncher's threat. The fight is expected to extend into later rounds due to the durability and experience of both fighters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pantoja has been dominant in the flyweight division with multiple title defenses and victories over top contenders like Brandon Moreno and Kai Asakura. Kara-France has shown striking power with knockouts over respected opponents but has lost two of his last five fights, indicating some inconsistency.
- The two first faced each other in 2016 during The Ultimate Fighter 24, where Pantoja won by unanimous decision in a closely contested bout. They have not fought since, making this effectively a rematch with a nearly decade-long gap.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the fight, indicating both athletes should be at full capacity.
- The bout is held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a major venue known for hosting UFC events, providing a high-profile stage. No adverse external factors such as travel or altitude concerns have been reported.
- Pantoja aims to extend his reign as flyweight champion and maintain his dominant streak. Kara-France is motivated by the chance to claim the title and prove his growth since their last encounter, looking to potentially keep the fight standing to use his striking advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alexandre Pantoja: -230, Kai Kara-France: 190 | Alexandre Pantoja to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Alexandre Pantoja: -5.5 -125, Kai Kara-France: +5.5 -105 | Pantoja covers -5.5 spread | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | Over: 3.5 -166, Under: 3.5 130 | Over 3.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Alexandre Pantoja -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 -4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexandre Pantoja at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alexandre Pantoja is favored to win, most likely by submission due to his superior grappling skills and Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree. While Kara-France poses a knockout threat with his striking, the probability leans towards Pantoja controlling the fight on the ground and securing a finish in the later rounds.
Predicted Score: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission in Round 4