Match Analysis: Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Game Overview
The Washington Capitals host the Tampa Bay Lightning in an NHL regular season game that promises to be competitive given recent form and previous matchups. The Capitals enter off a three-game win streak, having demonstrated strong recent offensive production with high scoring in the last few outings. Tampa Bay shows resilience in close games, with several overtime results this season and a solid record where the match is tight.
Key Factors to Consider
- Washington Capitals have an 11-8-2 record entering the game, currently riding a three-game winning streak with strong offensive outputs, including recent wins scoring 7 and 8 goals. Tampa Bay Lightning hold an 11-7-2 record and have performed well in overtime games with a 3-2-5 record in such contests. The Lightning tend to earn points even when outshot, indicating resilience.
- In their previous recent encounters the Capitals beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime on October 14, 2025, and by 3-2 again on November 8, 2025. Historically, matches have been competitive and close in score, indicating strong rivalry and tactical familiarity between teams.
- There are no specific updates on major injuries affecting either team in the days leading to this matchup. Both teams appear to have their core lineups available, contributing to expectations of a closely contested game.
- The game is played at Capital One Arena, giving the Capitals home-ice advantage which typically plays a role in NHL outcomes. The match will be broadcast on ESPN+ and Fubo, engaging a broad audience.
- The Capitals aim to extend a winning streak enhancing their position in the standings, while Tampa Bay seeks to bounce back on the road after recent losses and maintain playoff contention momentum, making motivation equally high on both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning: 104, Washington Capitals: -129 | Washington Capitals | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 -250, Washington Capitals: +1.5 195 | Washington Capitals -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: 6 100, under: 6 -124 | Under 6 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Washington Capitals 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 6 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Washington Capitals at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Capitals' current form, home advantage, and recent head-to-head wins, a narrow victory for Washington is most probable, although Tampa Bay's resilience could keep the game close, possibly pushing it to overtime.
Predicted Score: Washington Capitals 4 – 3 Tampa Bay Lightning