Match Analysis: Washington Capitals vs St Louis Blues – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, November 5, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Game Overview
The Washington Capitals host the St. Louis Blues in a midweek NHL matchup at Capital One Arena. The Capitals enter with a 6-5-1 record, having started strong but recently struggling with a 0-3-1 skid. The Blues are 4-7-2, searching for consistency. Both teams are dealing with key injuries, and the Capitals are expected to be motivated to rebound at home. The game is televised on TNT, with live coverage available.
Key Factors to Consider
- Washington began the season 6-2-0 but has since lost four straight games (0-3-1), exposing defensive and offensive inconsistencies. Their identity is in flux, especially after losing top center Pierre-Luc Dubois to injury. St. Louis has struggled overall, with a 4-7-2 record, but showed some resilience in recent games. The Blues have been inconsistent offensively and defensively, but their goaltending and special teams could be a factor.
- Recent head-to-head matchups between these teams have been competitive, with neither team dominating. The Capitals have a slight edge in home games, but the Blues have managed to keep games close in the past. No decisive historical trend favors either side strongly.
- Washington is missing Pierre-Luc Dubois (lower body, long-term), a major loss as their No. 2 center. Ethen Frank (upper body) is also out. Rasmus Sandin returns after missing five games. St. Louis is without Jake Neighbours (leg), Mathieu Joseph, Alexandre Texier, and Logan Mailloux. The absence of Dubois is particularly impactful for Washington, forcing a reshuffle of forward lines.
- The game is at Capital One Arena, where the Capitals have a strong home record. The Capitals are motivated to snap their losing streak and regain confidence. The Blues are on the road, which has been a challenge for them this season. The projected lineups show both teams with depth issues, especially Washington at center.
- Washington is highly motivated to rebound from a four-game winless streak and reestablish their early-season identity. The Blues are looking to build momentum after a poor start and could be dangerous if they capitalize on Washington's defensive lapses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -152, away: 123 | Washington Capitals | Not available |
| Spread | home: -1.5, away: 1.5, home_odds: 160, away_odds: -200 | St. Louis Blues +1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: -112, under: -112 | Over 6 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Washington Capitals 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 6 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Capitals are favored at home, but their recent struggles and the loss of Dubois make this a tricky matchup. The Blues are underdogs but have shown flashes of competitiveness. The game is likely to be close, but Washington's home advantage and depth should give them a slight edge. However, the Capitals' offensive inconsistency and defensive issues could keep the Blues in the game. The most likely outcome is a Capitals win, but not by a wide margin.
Predicted Score: Washington Capitals 4 – St. Louis Blues 3
