Match Analysis: Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-31
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Game Overview
The Washington Capitals host the New York Islanders in a Friday night NHL matchup at Capital One Arena. The Capitals enter with a 6-4 record, while the Islanders are 4-5-1 and on a three-game losing streak. The Capitals are strong defensively, allowing just 2.20 goals per game, while the Islanders are scoring 3.40 goals per game but allowing 3.80. Logan Thompson is expected in net for Washington, with a 1.44 GAA and .939 SV%. The Islanders have struggled defensively and on the road, while the Capitals are solid at home and have a clear edge in goaltending and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Washington is 6-4, allowing only 2.20 goals per game (1st in NHL), while New York is 4-5-1, allowing 3.80 goals per game (bottom 5). Washington’s offense is average (2.70 goals per game), but their defense and goaltending are elite. New York’s offense is strong (3.40 goals per game), but their defense is porous.
- The Capitals won the last meeting 4-2. Washington has a clear edge in recent H2H matchups, especially at home.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Logan Thompson is confirmed as Capitals starter, with strong recent form.
- The game is at Capital One Arena, where the Capitals have a strong home record. The Islanders are on a three-game losing streak and have struggled defensively on the road.
- The Capitals are looking to rebound from two straight losses and solidify their position in the Metropolitan Division. The Islanders are trying to snap a losing streak and improve their road record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -230, away: 190 | Washington Capitals | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -1.5, away: 1.5 | Washington Capitals -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 6.5, under: 6.5 | Over 6.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Washington Capitals 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6.5 28% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 6.5 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Washington Capitals are the clear favorite, with superior defense, goaltending, and home-ice advantage. The Islanders’ porous defense and recent form make them vulnerable. The Capitals are expected to win and cover the -1.5 spread, while the total is likely to go over 6.5 due to the Islanders’ high-scoring offense and Washington’s ability to score at home.
Predicted Score: Washington Capitals 4, New York Islanders 3
