Match Analysis: W-B/Scranton Penguins vs Toronto Marlies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 12:05 AM UTC
- Location: Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza
Game Overview
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins host Toronto Marlies in a midweek AHL matchup. Both teams are trending toward the middle of the Eastern Conference, with recent form and head-to-head favoring the Penguins at home. The game is expected to be competitive, but the Penguins have shown better defensive structure and offensive consistency in recent meetings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has won 4 of their last 5 home games, averaging 3.2 goals per game while allowing just 2.0. Toronto Marlies have struggled on the road, losing 3 of their last 5 away outings and averaging only 2.4 goals per game while conceding 3.1.
- In the last 5 meetings, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has won 3, Toronto Marlies 1, and 1 draw. The Penguins have won 2 of the last 3 at home, including a 4-2 victory in their most recent matchup.
- Toronto Marlies are missing two top-six forwards due to injury, weakening their offensive depth. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has a full roster, with their starting goaltender healthy and in strong form.
- The Penguins have a strong home crowd advantage and are coming off a rest day, while Toronto is on a back-to-back after a tough road game the previous night.
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is fighting for a playoff spot and has shown increased urgency in recent games. Toronto is in a comfortable mid-table position and may lack the same level of motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -150, away: 102 | W-B/Scranton Penguins | Not available |
| Spread | home: 185, away: -265 | W-B/Scranton Penguins -1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 102, under: -137 | Over 5.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | W-B/Scranton Penguins -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins win outright, cover the -1.5 spread, and the game goes over 5.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 4-2