Match Analysis: Toronto Maple Leafs vs St Louis Blues – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Game Overview
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the St. Louis Blues at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, November 18, 2025. The Maple Leafs enter the game with an 8-9-2 record, while the Blues are 6-9-4. Both teams are struggling to find consistency, but Toronto has a slight edge in recent form and home-ice advantage. The matchup features key offensive players like William Nylander and John Tavares for Toronto, and Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou for St. Louis.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto has shown better offensive production at home (7-4-2) compared to St. Louisβs road struggles (3-4-0). The Maple Leafs average 3.1 goals per game, while the Blues average 2.5. Torontoβs defense has been leaky, allowing 3.2 goals per game, but their offense can outpace opponents. St. Louis has struggled with consistency, especially on the road, and ranks near the bottom in goals scored.
- Recent head-to-head matchups have been competitive, with Toronto holding a slight edge in wins over the last five meetings. The teams split their last two games, but Toronto has scored more goals in those contests.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both rosters are at full strength, which is crucial for offensive production and defensive stability.
- The game is played at Scotiabank Arena, where Toronto has a strong home record. The venueβs atmosphere and travel fatigue for the Blues could play a role. The puck line and over/under odds suggest a close game with potential for high scoring.
- Toronto is looking to snap a losing streak and improve their playoff positioning, while St. Louis is fighting to stay competitive in a tough Central Division. Both teams have playoff aspirations, adding extra motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | TOR -129, STL +105 | Toronto Maple Leafs | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | TOR -1.5 (+188), STL +1.5 (-240) | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 6 (-108), Under 6 (-114) | Over | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Maple Leafs -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 6 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Maple Leafs are favored to win this matchup due to their home advantage, stronger offensive output, and recent form. The game is expected to be close, but Torontoβs depth and offensive firepower should give them the edge.
Predicted Score: Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – 3 St. Louis Blues