Match Analysis: Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-21
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Game Overview
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New Jersey Devils in a tightly contested Eastern Conference matchup, featuring two high-scoring teams with recent form and matchup nuances shaping expectations.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto ranks 5th in NHL goals per game (3.67), while New Jersey is slightly higher at 4th (3.80). Maple Leafs have struggled with power play efficiency (27th in league), offset by Devils' elite penalty kill (95%). Toronto has an 8-game winning streak against Metropolitan Division opponents.
- Despite Toronto's current home edge, underdogs have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, and the road team covered the puck line in 10 of the last 11 games between these teams. Toronto has won 7 of the last 10 head-to-head but lost 4 games after overtime recently.
- No major injuries reported for either side affecting starting lineup or key players at this moment.
- The home venue provides Toronto with energy, but New Jersey's recent road struggles following wins (no puck line cover in last 11 games post-win) and losing third periods as underdogs indicate pressure in away games.
- Toronto aims to maintain dominance over Metropolitan rivals and recover from recent OT losses, while New Jersey is motivated by a four-game win streak including recent solid offensive performances.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Maple Leafs: -122, New Jersey Devils: +102 | Toronto Maple Leafs | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5: +205, New Jersey Devils +1.5: -250 | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 5.5: -130, Under 5.5: +110 | Over 5.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Maple Leafs 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 5.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright on the moneyline given home advantage and recent dominance against conference opponents.
Predicted Score: Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – New Jersey Devils 3