Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Washington Capitals in an Eastern Conference NHL matchup. Both teams have similar records (Lightning 7-5-2, Capitals 7-6-1), but recent form heavily favors the Lightning, especially at home where Tampa is on a winning streak and the Capitals struggle on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay is 2-3 in their last 5 games with strong offensive production, recently scoring 6 goals in an away win. Washington is struggling, losing 5 of their last 6 games including a 5-3 loss to Pittsburgh, and averaging lower offensive output.
- Lightning hold a slight edge in the last 10 meetings with a 6-4 advantage, including a recent close 3-2 shootout win on the road.
- No major injury news reported for either team affecting key players significantly.
- Game is in Tampa's home venue with typical NHL conditions; no adverse external factors impacting play reported.
- Lightning motivated to maintain home dominance and improve standings while Capitals look to snap a poor road losing streak and climb division ranks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay -150, Washington +120 | Tampa Bay Lightning | ★★★★☆ 73% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay -1.5 +163, Washington +1.5 -205 | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 6 -109, Under 6 -114 | Over 6 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 6 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning to win outright on moneyline, cover the -1.5 spread, and the total goals to go over 6
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – Washington Capitals 2