Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 12:40 AM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (10-7-2) face the Edmonton Oilers (9-9-4) in an NHL regular season game at Tampa's Benchmark International Arena. Both teams have shown competitive performances this season, with Tampa Bay slightly ahead in the standings and playing at home. The Oilers are offering underdog value on the road against a Lightning team known for strong home ice performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay holds a better overall record (10-7-2) compared to Edmonton's (9-9-4), bolstered by a 5-5-0 home record. Edmonton struggles more on the road (4-8-2). Tampa's defense led by Victor Hedman shows strength, while Edmonton relies heavily on Connor McDavid's offensive output. Tampa's balanced scoring and solid goaltending give them a performance edge.
- Recent NHL head-to-head stats favor Tampa Bay when playing at home, with the Lightning winning a majority of recent matchups against Edmonton on their ice. Tampa Bayβs puck line has also shown promise in covering against Edmonton.
- No significant injury reports indicate missing key players for either team before this game, allowing both to field their optimal lineups.
- Playing at home gives Tampa a tangible advantage, supported by fan energy and familiarity with the Benchark International Arena ice surface. Travel and schedule congestion have not artificially dampened team readiness.
- Tampa Bay aims to consolidate their playoff position and build on home success, while Edmonton seeks to improve their road record and gain ground in tightly contested standings. Both teams have motivation but Tampaβs home crowd support raises their morale higher.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Edmonton Oilers: 125, Tampa Bay Lightning: -155 | Tampa Bay Lightning | β β β ββ 67% |
| Spread | Edmonton Oilers: -1.5 @ -200, Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 @ 160 | Tampa Bay Lightning to cover -1.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 6 goals: -118, Under 6 goals: -106 | Over 6 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning to win, leveraging stronger home performance, better overall record, and superior team balance.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – 2 Edmonton Oilers