Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-23
- Time: 10:55 PM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning, struggling early this season with a 1-3-2 record and a three-game losing streak, host the Chicago Blackhawks who have a better form at 3-2-2 and just won their last game in overtime. Tampa Bay is favored on home ice but has shown defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent offense, while Chicago brings momentum and solid goaltending from Spencer Knight.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chicago is in better recent form, winning 3 of their last 4 games, including an OT win in the last outing. Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight and is just 1-3-2 overall. Chicagoβs offense is powered by Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar, while Tampaβs scoring has been uneven.
- Over the past 10 meetings, Tampa Bay has dominated with 8 wins, indicating a historical performance edge, but recent form favors Chicago to challenge that trend.
- No major injuries reported impacting starting lineups for either side, so full-strength squads expected.
- Home advantage for Tampa Bay could provide moderate support. Venue and coverage factors neutral apart from crowd support. No unusual travel or scheduling issues noted.
- Chicago aims to build on their momentum and improve their road record. Tampa Bay seeks to stop their losing streak at home and get back on track early in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -310, Chicago Blackhawks +250 | Tampa Bay Lightning | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 -122, Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 102 | Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 6.5 +114, Under 6.5 -135 | Under 6.5 | β β β ββ 69% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 6.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning to win on the moneyline with an expected moderately high confidence due to historical dominance and home advantage, but cognizant of Chicagoβs good current form keeping the match competitive.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 3 – Chicago Blackhawks 2