Match Analysis: Rochester Americans vs W-B/Scranton Penguins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:05 AM UTC
- Location: Blue Cross Arena, Rochester
Game Overview
Rochester Americans host Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in a tightly contested AHL matchup. Both teams are evenly matched, with no clear favorite, but Rochester holds a slight edge in implied probability and home-ice advantage. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams showing a tendency to play at a fast tempo and allowing goals in recent meetings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rochester Americans have shown strong recent form, especially at home, and have won 4 of their last 5 games. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins are also in good form, but have struggled slightly on the road, losing 3 of their last 5 away games. Both teams have high offensive output, with Rochester averaging 3.2 goals per game and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton averaging 2.9.
- In the last 27 meetings, Rochester has a slight edge with 14 wins to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton's 13. The average total goals per game is 5.96, with the last meeting ending 5-2 in favor of Rochester. Over 1.5 goals have been scored in the first period in the last 6 H2H games.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both rosters are at full strength, which increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
- The game is being played at Blue Cross Arena, where Rochester has a strong home record. The weather is mild, with no travel disruptions expected. The arena is known for its fast ice, which favors high-tempo play.
- Both teams are in the playoff race, with Rochester aiming to solidify their position in the standings and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton looking to close the gap. The high stakes increase the intensity and likelihood of a competitive game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rochester Americans: -120, W-B/Scranton Penguins: -110 | Rochester Americans | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Rochester Americans -1.5: 210, W-B/Scranton Penguins +1.5: -285 | Rochester Americans -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: -115, Under 5.5: -115 | Over 5.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rochester Americans 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rochester Americans are favored to win this game, but the most valuable play is on the over. The combination of strong offensive teams, full rosters, and a fast-paced style of play makes a high-scoring game likely. The odds on the over are fair, but the probability of more than 5.5 goals is higher than the implied probability from the odds.
Predicted Score: 4-3