Match Analysis: Rochester Americans vs Belleville Senators – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 12:05 AM UTC
- Location: Rochester, USA (Home)
Game Overview
AHL matchup between Rochester Americans (home) and Belleville Senators (away). Rochester is favored in betting markets with -165 moneyline odds, reflecting their home-ice advantage. This is a divisional matchup in the American Hockey League with moderate scoring expectations (5.5 total goals line).
Key Factors to Consider
- Rochester Americans show strong home performance metrics with historical advantage against Belleville. Recent form data indicates Rochester has won 10 of their last 11 home games against Belleville Senators, establishing clear home-ice dominance.
- Rochester Americans have significant H2H advantage against Belleville Senators at home, winning 10 of last 11 matchups in this venue. This established pattern suggests Rochester's tactical setup and roster composition performs well against Belleville's style.
- No injury data available from provided search results. Assume both teams at full or near-full roster capacity.
- Home-ice advantage is substantial in AHL play. Rochester's familiar crowd support and ice conditions provide measurable benefit. Early season timing (mid-November) suggests teams are still developing chemistry and form.
- Both teams competing in AHL regular season with playoff positioning implications. No specific motivational factors (elimination scenarios, rivalry intensification) evident from available data. Standard competitive motivation assumed.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rochester Americans -165 | Belleville Senators +125 | Rochester Americans ML | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Rochester Americans -1.5 (+165) | Belleville Senators +1.5 (-220) | Rochester Americans -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rochester Americans -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 -5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Rochester Americans at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rochester Americans favored moneyline winner with high confidence. Expected total goals slightly under the 5.5 line based on historical scoring patterns in this matchup.
Predicted Score: Rochester Americans 3, Belleville Senators 2