Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Minnesota Wild – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
Game Overview
This NHL matchup features the Pittsburgh Penguins (10-5-4) hosting the Minnesota Wild (10-7-4) at PPG Paints Arena. Both teams have similar records but the Penguins have been stronger at home, holding a 5-2-1 record, while the Wild struggle on the road with recent losses following wins. The Penguins are fourth in the Metropolitan Division, with a strong recent performance including a 4-0 shutout of the Predators. Minnesota averages 2.76 goals per game but concedes 3.05 goals and has a subpar penalty kill success rate at 72.92%. The game is set for November 21, 2025, at 7 PM EST with coverage on NHL Net.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Penguins have a record of 10-5-4 with 24 points, strong home performance (5-2-1), 15-4 against the spread (ATS), and 9-8 on over/under. They recently won 4-0 at home, indicating solid defense and offense. The Wild hold a 10-7-4 record, but have lost their last seven road games following a win, and have a less effective penalty kill (72.92%). Minnesota scores 2.76 goals per game but allows 3.05, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- Pittsburgh has won the last four night games at home against teams on winning streaks and covered the puck line in their last four home games versus such opponents. The Wild have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven road games following a win, suggesting Pittsburgh's advantage in these situational matchups.
- No specific injury updates were found for key players in either team for this matchup as of current data, implying that both teams are expected to field their regular lineups.
- The game is played at Pittsburgh's home arena, PPG Paints Arena, favoring the Penguins with their strong home record. Weather and travel do not appear to be a concern. Betting markets show balanced moneyline odds (-112 for both teams) but favor the Wild heavily on the puck line at -278 for +1.5 goals, implying bettors expect a close game.
- Pittsburgh seeks to maintain momentum after a strong shutout and has high confidence against teams on winning streaks at home. Minnesota aims to break their losing streak on the road following wins and improve their defensive game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Wild: -112, Pittsburgh Penguins: -112 | Pittsburgh Penguins | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Minnesota Wild: +1.5 -278, Pittsburgh Penguins: -1.5 220 | Pittsburgh Penguins to cover -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 6 -117, Under: 6 -107 | Over 6 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Penguins 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6 -4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pittsburgh Penguins are predicted to win a close game based on home advantage, strong recent defensive performance, and Minnesota's road struggles after wins.
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh Penguins 4 – 2 Minnesota Wild