Match Analysis: Ottawa Senators vs Los Angeles Kings – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, Ontario
Game Overview
The Ottawa Senators host the Los Angeles Kings in a matchup between two evenly-matched teams, both holding identical 9-5-4 records. This contest features two teams with contrasting playing stylesβthe Kings emphasizing elite two-way structure and transition play, while the Senators lean on high-end young talent and home-ice aggression. Sportsbooks have struggled to separate these teams, with moneyline odds reflecting a near pick'em scenario.
Key Factors to Consider
- Los Angeles Kings: 9-5-4 record, 3.28 goals per game, 2.71 goals allowed, 22.4% power play, 82.1% penalty kill. The Kings are 6-2-2 on the road this season and have gone 6-2 in their last 10 games with 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.2 goals on 30.1 shots with 8.6% power play efficiency and strong 89.7% penalty killing. Ottawa Senators: 9-5-4 record, 3.11 goals per game, 3.48 goals allowed, 19.7% power play, 78.3% penalty kill. The Senators are 6-2-2 at home but struggling against the spread (1-4 in last 5 games ATS). Ottawa has won 3 of their last 5 games and has seen the total go over in 6 of their last 10 home games.
- No specific recent head-to-head data provided in available sources. Teams are evenly matched based on regular season records and metrics.
- No injury information provided in available sources.
- Home-ice advantage favors Ottawa at Canadian Tire Centre, where the Senators typically play faster and more aggressively. However, the Kings' superior road record (8-1-2) suggests strong travel performance. Public betting shows 55% of bets on Senators but only 45% on Kings, indicating potential line value on Los Angeles.
- Both teams are in similar playoff positioning with identical records. Ottawa may have slight motivation edge as home team but the Kings' recent form and road strength indicate balanced competitive desire.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kings -112 / Senators -112 | Los Angeles Kings | β β β ββ 52% |
| Spread | Kings +1.5 (-278) / Senators -1.5 (220) | Los Angeles Kings +1.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 (-114) / Under 5.5 (-109) | Over 5.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Kings -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This matchup presents conflicting signals. While the Senators hold home-ice advantage and sportsbooks favor them slightly, the Kings' superior defensive structure, elite two-way play, and exceptional road record (8-1-2) suggest undervaluation. Multiple predictive models conflict: one projects Kings 4-3, another predicts Kings moneyline with 50.3% probability, while traditional oddsmakers lean Senators. The Kings' puck-possession dominance and penalty-kill efficiency (89.7%) versus Ottawa's weak penalty kill (78.3%) creates a strategic advantage. However, Ottawa's home aggression and young talent (StΓΌtzle, Batherson) present legitimate threats.
Predicted Score: Los Angeles Kings 4, Ottawa Senators 3