Match Analysis: Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 11, 2025
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, Ontario
Game Overview
The Dallas Stars (9-4-3) travel to face the Ottawa Senators (8-5-3) in a matchup between two competitive teams in the middle of the 2025-26 NHL season. Dallas enters as a slight road favorite despite playing away, while Ottawa has momentum with four consecutive home wins at Canadian Tire Centre. This game features two teams with strong recent form, making it a competitive clash between Eastern and Western conference opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dallas Stars have won their last two games, including a 2-1 home victory against Seattle with strong goaltending (Casey DeSmith, .968 save percentage). The Stars are 4-1-2 on the road and ranked 2nd in their division with a strong 5-1 divisional record. Ottawa Senators have won three of their last five games and snapped a losing streak with momentum, posting four consecutive home wins at Canadian Tire Centre. Offensively, Ottawa averages 3.2 goals over their last five games. Dallas has been dominant in recent matchups, winning their previous two meetings against Ottawa.
- Dallas Stars won their most recent matchup 3-2 against Ottawa, extending their recent dominance. The Stars have won their previous two games against the Senators, suggesting they have the upper hand in this rivalry.
- No significant injuries reported for either team based on available information.
- The game is played at Canadian Tire Centre, where Ottawa has strong home advantage with four consecutive victories. However, Dallas has shown strong road performance (4-1-2 record). The Stars are favored by 1.5 goals by most sportsbooks despite being on the road, indicating market confidence in their quality.
- Ottawa has momentum from recent wins and home court advantage, creating motivation to extend their winning streak. Dallas seeks to maintain their strong performance and road success. The competitive standings in both divisions add playoff implications.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | DAL -108 / OTT -112 | Dallas Stars to Win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | DAL -1.5 (-285) / OTT +1.5 (230) | Dallas Stars -1.5 | β β β ββ 54% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 (-125) / Under 5.5 (105) | Under 5.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dallas Stars to win 3-2 in a tight contest. The Stars' superior recent form (winning their last two games), road success (4-1-2 away record), and head-to-head dominance over Ottawa outweigh the Senators' home advantage and recent momentum. Expect a low-scoring, defensively focused game.
Predicted Score: Dallas Stars 3, Ottawa Senators 2