Match Analysis: Hartford Wolf Pack vs Rochester Americans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Hartford, CT
Game Overview
Hartford Wolf Pack hosts Rochester Americans in a pivotal AHL matchup. Both teams are trending in opposite directions, with Rochester showing stronger recent form and Hartford struggling defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rochester Americans have won 3 of their last 5 games, including a 4-6 win over Belleville and a 3-4 OT win over Cleveland. Hartford Wolf Pack have lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2-3 OT loss to Providence and a 2-4 loss to Laval. Hartford's defense is allowing 3+ goals per game recently.
- Recent H2H data is limited, but Rochester has shown a slight edge in close games this season. Both teams have split recent OT/SO decisions, but Rochester has better offensive output in those matchups.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of latest updates. Both rosters are at full strength.
- Hartford is playing at home, but their home record is weak (1-3 in last 4). Rochester has a solid road record (3-2 in last 5 away). Ice conditions and travel fatigue are neutral.
- Rochester is fighting for a playoff spot and has shown urgency in recent games. Hartford is trending downward and lacks momentum, which could impact morale and execution.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 115, away: -150 | Rochester Americans | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: 1.5 -225, away: -1.5 170 | Rochester Americans -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 5.5 -115, under: 5.5 -115 | Over 5.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rochester Americans -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rochester Americans are the higher expected value play due to superior recent form, better defensive discipline, and stronger motivation. Hartford's home advantage is negated by their poor defensive record and lack of momentum.
Predicted Score: Hartford Wolf Pack 3 – 4 Rochester Americans