Match Analysis: Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Amerant Bank Arena
Game Overview
A high-stakes intrastate rivalry matchup between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning, with both teams trending toward the upper half of the Atlantic Division. The Panthers are strong at home, while the Lightning have shown resilience on the road and in recent head-to-head meetings. The game is expected to be fast-paced, with both teams possessing strong offensive units and vulnerable defenses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Florida Panthers are 6-1-1 at home this season, with a 7-3 advantage in the last 10 meetings. They allow 2.94 goals per game (12th in NHL) and have a 20% power play success rate. Tampa Bay is tied for 17th in goals per game (3.06) and 14th in goals against (3.00), with a league-leading 88.2% penalty kill. The Lightning have a better recent defensive record (2.67 GA/5G vs. Panthers' 3.20 GA/5G).
- Panthers lead 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, including a 6-3 win in the most recent playoff matchup. However, Lightning have won 4-3 in a recent regular season game. The series is trending toward high-scoring, back-and-forth contests.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both starting goalies are expected to be available, with Bobrovsky fresh for the Panthers.
- Panthers are on a three-game win streak and have strong home-ice advantage. Lightning are road-tested and have a slight edge in recent defensive metrics. The venue is a high-event, energetic environment, which may favor the home team.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning. Panthers are defending their home turf, while Lightning are seeking to solidify their status as a top contender. The rivalry adds extra intensity, often leading to higher scoring and more aggressive play.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -141, away: 114 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Not available |
| Spread | home: 175, away: -225 | Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: -122, under: -103 | Over 5.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida Panthers 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Florida Panthers at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning win in regulation. The Lightning's superior penalty kill, recent defensive form, and ability to capitalize on transition play will be the difference. Expect a close, high-scoring game, but Lightning will edge it late.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3 Florida Panthers