Match Analysis: Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
Game Overview
Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2-2, struggling defense) visits Columbus Blue Jackets (1-3-0, coming off two straight losses) in a battle of Eastern Conference teams looking to reverse early-season slumps.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay is scoring 2.8 goals per game (PP: 23.1%) but allowing 3.6 goals against (28th in NHL), with Vasilevskiy facing a high volume of shots[3]. Columbus is weaker defensively but catching Tampa on the second night of a back-to-back, which is significant for fatigue[3]. Both teams are winless in their last two.
- Tampa Bay has won 7 of the last 10 meetings, including the last two by scores of 5-3 and 6-2[7]. However, most of those games were in Tampa, and Columbus is at home tonight, where the Lightning have struggled this season.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the latest previews[3][7].
- Tampa Bay is playing the second leg of a back-to-back, having lost two straight overtime games, suggesting possible fatigue and rest disadvantage[3]. Columbus is at home, well-rested, and has a slight coaching/motivation edge.
- Both teams are seeking to halt early-season slides. Columbus, at home with rest, may be slightly more motivated to avoid a third straight loss, while Tampa looks to turn around a poor road/back-to-back record[3].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Columbus Blue Jackets -120, Tampa Bay Lightning +100 | Columbus Blue Jackets Moneyline | β β β ββ 58% |
Spread | Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 +200, Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 -245 | Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 6.5 -112, Under 6.5 -108 | Over 6.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Columbus Blue Jackets -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 6.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 6.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Columbus Blue Jackets, with the home and rest edge, plus Tampa Bay's defensive issues and fatigue, should find a way to win a close, higher-scoring game, but Tampa's talent and power play keep it tight.
Predicted Score: Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3