Match Analysis: Belleville Senators vs Hartford Wolf Pack - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: CAA Centre, Belleville, Ontario
Game Overview
Belleville Senators host Hartford Wolf Pack in a tightly contested AHL matchup. Both teams are trending toward high-scoring affairs, with recent form and head-to-head history indicating a strong likelihood of goals. The Senators hold a slight edge in home H2H record and current win probability, but Hartford has shown resilience and offensive output in recent games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Belleville Senators have won 4 of their last 10 games, with 80% of their recent matches going over 3.5 and 4.5 goals. Hartford Wolf Pack also have 4 wins in their last 10, with an average of 2.8 goals scored and conceded per game. Both teams are prone to allowing goals, and BTTS (both teams to score) has hit in 90% of Belleville's recent games.
- In 26 H2H meetings, Belleville has 14 wins (54%) to Hartford's 10 (38%). The average total goals per match is 5.5, with 12 of the last 14 meetings going over 4.5 goals. The most recent meeting (March 2025) ended 4-1 for Hartford.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Secondary players may feature, but no significant roster changes affecting core lineups.
- The game is played at Belleville's home arena, which historically favors the Senators in H2H matchups. The AHL schedule is tight, but both teams are in mid-table form with no playoff implications at this stage.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but neither is in a must-win situation. Expect a competitive, open game with both sides looking to build momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -125 | Belleville Senators | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | 215 | Belleville Senators -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | -107 | Over 5.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Belleville Senators 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 32% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Belleville Senators are favored at home, but Hartford's recent form and the high-scoring trend in H2H and recent games point to a close, high-scoring affair. The best value is on the Over, with both teams likely to score and the total exceeding 5.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 4-3
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