Match Analysis: Villarreal vs Girona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de la CerΓ‘mica, Vila-Real, Spain
Game Overview
Villarreal enters the match as a clear favorite against Girona, reflecting their superior league position and recent positive form. Villarreal began the 2025/26 La Liga season strongly with a 2-0 away win, while Girona struggles as a mid-low table team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal shows consistent strength with a 61.9% win rate as favorite and solid squad additions this season. Girona has struggled as an underdog, winning only about 6.7% of such matches.
- Historically Villarreal has had better results against Girona and are significantly favored by bookmakers, indicating a probable trending advantage.
- Villarreal is missing key players like Logan Costa, Willy Kambwala, Denis SuΓ‘rez, Gerard Moreno, Diego Conde, and Ayoze PΓ©rez. Despite absences, their depth appears sufficient. Girona injury status is less detailed, implying fewer notable absences.
- The match venue favors Villarreal at home (Estadio de la CerΓ‘mica), and no negative external circumstances appear to impact either team notably.
- Villarreal aims to maintain upward momentum in the league with a good start, while Girona seeks to improve poor away form. Villarrealβs ambition and squad quality suggest higher motivation to secure all three points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal: -192, Girona: 460, Draw: 360 | Villarreal | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Villarreal -1: -112, Girona +1: -108 | Villarreal -1 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: -118, Under 2.75: -102 | Under 2.75 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.75 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal to win (moneyline), Villarreal -1 spread, Under 2.75 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0