Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs Orlando City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-26
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Energizer Park, St. Louis, MO
Game Overview
St. Louis City SC hosts Orlando City SC at Energizer Park in a Major League Soccer regular-season match. This will be the first meeting between the teams since August 2023 when Orlando won 2-1. St. Louis City SC currently ranks 14th in the Western Conference with a record of 3-9-6, while Orlando City SC stands 5th in the Eastern Conference with 8-4-6. Orlando is statistically stronger in attack and defense, with a higher league ranking overall and more goals scored, while St. Louis struggles offensively and defensively as indicated by their goals for and against.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Louis City SC has scored 17 goals and conceded 32, placing them 27th in MLS in goal scoring and struggling defensively with 26 goals conceded. Orlando City SC has scored 32 goals and conceded 22, reflecting a more balanced and effective performance. Orlando also outperforms St. Louis in shots per game (11.94 vs 9.12), shots on target (5.24 vs 4.12), and passes completed, indicating greater control and offensive threat.
- The last meeting in August 2023 ended with Orlando City SC winning 2-1 at home. This will be their first encounter in 2025, with Orlando having the historical edge and better recent form.
- No detailed injury updates found for either squad in the available data. Both teams are expected to field strong lineups.
- The game is played at St. Louis' home ground, Energizer Park, potentially providing home advantage to St. Louis City SC. Orlando has a slightly better recent schedule and momentum, with fewer back-to-back home games than St. Louis. Weather and pitch conditions are not detailed but assumed typical for late June in St. Louis.
- Orlando City SC, being higher in the table and fighting for a playoff spot, has significant motivation to secure away points to consolidate their position. St. Louis, struggling in the lower table, will be motivated to gain points at home to improve standing and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis City SC: 195, Orlando City SC: 125, Draw: 275 | Orlando City SC to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Orlando City SC: -0.25 -102, St. Louis City SC: +25 -118 | Orlando City SC -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 3 +102, Under: 3 -122 | Under 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Orlando City SC 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Orlando City SC at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Orlando City's superior overall statistics, recent form, and slightly better squad performance, they are favored to win or at least secure a draw in this match, despite it being away. St. Louis may struggle to contain Orlando's attack but could leverage home advantage to keep the match competitive.
Predicted Score: Orlando City SC 2 – 1 St. Louis City SC