Match Analysis: Columbus Crew SC vs FC Cincinnati – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, USA
Game Overview
This MLS playoff match features Columbus Crew SC hosting FC Cincinnati in a critical encounter. Columbus holds a slight historical edge at home with an average of 1.71 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per home game this season. FC Cincinnati shows resilience away, with a solid away scoring average of 1.47 goals per game but concedes slightly more than Columbus at 1.24 per away match. The recent head-to-head series shows a competitive rivalry, with FC Cincinnati winning the last meeting 1-0 away.
Key Factors to Consider
- Columbus Crew has scored 29 of their 55 total season goals at home, indicating stronger offensive output at Lower.com Field. Defensively, they concede fewer at home compared to FC Cincinnatiβs away concessions. FC Cincinnati averages slightly less in goal-scoring away than Columbus does at home but has a solid defense ranking 5th in away goals conceded.
- In their last 5 meetings, Columbus Crew won once, FC Cincinnati twice, and two matches ended in draws. The last match (Oct 27, 2025) ended 1-0 in favor of FC Cincinnati away. Historically, Columbus has 8 wins against Cincinnatiβs 4 in 18 total encounters. Most recent matches tend to have medium scoring totals (2-3 goals common), indicating a moderately open game.
- FC Cincinnati is missing Ayoub Jabbari, Brad Smith, Lukas Engel, and Matt Miazga due to injuries. Columbus Crew's unavailable players include Mohamed Farsi and Wessam Abou Ali. These absences could impact both defensive solidity and attacking depth, with Cincinnati missing several defensive players.
- The match is played at Columbus Crewβs home stadium, which tends to boost their performance. Current betting odds indicate a close market but slightly favor Columbus at home. No major weather or travel disruptions reported. The recent playoff intensity and time since last match (6 days) also play into team freshness and strategy adjustment.
- Both teams are motivated, with Columbus seeking to overturn the recent away defeat and capitalize on home advantage. FC Cincinnati aims to maintain their recent win and progress further in playoffs, despite missing key players. Playoff stakes add pressure to perform tactically and mentally.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC: -117, FC Cincinnati: 280, Draw: 280 | Columbus Crew SC win | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Columbus Crew SC: -0.5 -115, FC Cincinnati: 50 -105 | Columbus Crew -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 -122, Under: 3 102 | Under 3 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Columbus Crew is favored to win narrowly at home, with an expectation of a competitive match and moderate scoring. The match likely will feature tactical caution given playoff context but home advantage and recent home form give Columbus a slight edge.
Predicted Score: 2-1