Match Analysis: Austin FC vs FC Dallas – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Q2 Stadium, Austin, USA
Game Overview
Austin FC hosts FC Dallas in an MLS match at Q2 Stadium. Austin FC currently ranks 7th while FC Dallas sits 11th. Historically, FC Dallas leads the head-to-head with 7 wins to Austin FC's 3 out of 12 encounters, with 2 draws. Austin FC has scored fewer average goals per match (1.3) versus Dallas's 1.8. Recent form shows Austin FC unbeaten in the last 5 matches scoring 10 goals, while FC Dallas won the previous 2 games in this fixture. Key players include Brandon Vazquez for Austin FC and Petar Musa for FC Dallas, both with 1.3 shots on target per match.
Key Factors to Consider
- Austin FC has been strong offensively at home, scoring 10 goals in the last 5 matches and maintaining an unbeaten streak. FC Dallas has moderate away performance with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently. Both teams have similar goals conceded per match (Austin 1.8, Dallas 2.0). Asian handicap win percentages are 20% for Austin and 40% for Dallas in their last 5 matches. Austin FC ranks higher in the table, suggesting better consistency.
- Across 12 MLS matches, FC Dallas leads 7-3 in wins over Austin FC, with 2 draws. FC Dallas has averaged 1.8 goals per match against Austinβs 1.3. Recent clashes favored FC Dallas winning their last 2 matches against Austin FC. Historical scorelines show several high-scoring games, including a 5-3 Dallas victory and 3-0, 2-2 draws.
- No specific injury reports available in the current data, implying both teams may field close to full strength.
- Match is at Austinβs home stadium (Q2 Stadium), providing home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are not specified but typically not extreme in August in Austin, which could favor home team.
- Austin FC, ranked higher and unbeaten in recent matches, may have stronger motivation to maintain momentum, while FC Dallas looks to leverage their historical head-to-head advantage and recent wins for confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin FC: -117, FC Dallas: 280, Draw: 285 | Austin FC Win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Austin FC -0.5: -122, FC Dallas +50: -109 | Austin FC to win by at least 1 goal (covering -0.5 spread) | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -145, Under 2.5: 109 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin FC 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Austin FC at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Austin FC is favored to win due to home advantage, recent unbeaten form, and higher league standing despite FC Dallas' historical head-to-head superiority. A closely contested match with potential for goals is expected.
Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of Austin FC