Match Analysis: CA Osasuna vs Getafe – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-03
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio El Sadar
Game Overview
Osasuna (13th, 2–1–4, 7 pts) hosts Getafe (8th, 3–2–2, 11 pts) in a La Liga match. Osasuna is struggling for form, winless in their last three and only victorious against Rayo Vallecano last month. Getafe, despite a modest record of one win in five, sits higher in the table and has a positive historical edge in this fixture. Both teams are desperate for points, but Osasuna's recent defensive instability and Getafe's comparative momentum may tip the balance[1][2][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Osasuna is in a slump, with only one win in their last eight matches in all competitions and a recent 2-0 defeat to Real Betis. Getafe, while not dominant, has been more consistent, losing only two of their last five. Defensively, Getafe has only one clean sheet in their last six, but Osasuna’s backline has been equally shaky, conceding multiple goals in recent defeats[1][2][4].
- Getafe has a strong recent record, winning 8 of the last 20 meetings compared to Osasuna’s 3, with 9 draws. Osasuna has only one win in their last eight against Getafe, suggesting a psychological advantage for the visitors[1][2].
- Osasuna will miss Rubén García and Aimar Oroz due to injury. Getafe will be without Juanmi. Both absences are significant but do not drastically alter the expected starting lineups[2].
- No major external factors reported. The match is at Osasuna's home ground, but their recent form minimizes the typical home advantage. Weather forecast is not available to impact the match[1][2].
- Both teams are motivated for a win to improve their league positions. Osasuna needs to break their poor run, while Getafe aims to solidify their top-half standing and extend their positive head-to-head record[1][4].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Osasuna: +121, Draw: +193, Getafe: +285 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Osasuna -0.25 (-118), Getafe +25 (-102) | Osasuna -0.25 (pick Osasuna to cover) | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 1.75 (-112), Under 1.75 (-108) | Under 1.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.75 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Draw at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite home advantage, Osasuna’s poor form, defensive fragility, and Getafe’s historical edge suggest a tight but ultimately favorable outcome for the visitors or a draw. A low-scoring affair is expected, given both teams’ recent defensive performances and the absence of top attacking options[1][2][4].
Predicted Score: 0–1 (Getafe win) or 1–1 (Draw)