Match Analysis: Sunderland vs Blackburn Rovers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-21
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadium of Light
Game Overview
The upcoming EFL Championship match between Sunderland and Blackburn Rovers promises to be a competitive fixture. Sunderland, playing at home, have shown moderate recent form with a 2-1-2 record in their last five matches, scoring fewer goals but maintaining a solid defensive record. Blackburn Rovers have struggled with consistency, managing only one win in their last five games and conceding more goals on average.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sunderland have scored an average of 0.4 goals and conceded 0.8 goals per match over their last five games, showing a strong defensive approach with a 60% Asian Handicap win rate. Blackburn Rovers average 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match recently with a 20% Asian Handicap win rate, indicating defensive vulnerabilities and less offensive threat.
- Across 26 meetings since 1997, Blackburn have a slight edge with 10 wins to Sunderland's 8, and 8 draws. Recent encounters include a 2-2 draw in December 2024 and a 3-1 Sunderland victory at Blackburn in the previous season. Sunderland’s home form against Blackburn has been competitive but relatively balanced historically.
- Current injury information is not explicitly available from recent sources but no major absences have been widely reported for either side, suggesting both teams may field near full-strength lineups.
- Playing at Sunderland’s Stadium of Light offers home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be typical for late April in England, unlikely to heavily influence the match.
- Both teams are battling for crucial points in the Championship, Sunderland aiming to solidify their playoff push while Blackburn look to improve their position and avoid slipping further down the table. This adds intensity and pressure to the fixture.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sunderland: -135, Blackburn Rovers: 380, Draw: 250 | Sunderland win | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Sunderland: -0.75 -105, Blackburn Rovers: 75 -115 | Sunderland -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -102 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sunderland 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sunderland are favored to win narrowly due to stronger recent form, home advantage, and better defensive statistics. A draw is plausible given Blackburn's previous resilience in head-to-head matches.
Predicted Score: 1-0