Match Analysis: Southampton vs Stoke City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
 - Time: 2:00 PM UTC
 - Location: St. Mary's Stadium
 
Game Overview
Southampton hosts Stoke City in an English Championship Round 3 match at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton are unbeaten in their last six clashes, while Stoke have shown strong home and away form this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southampton has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent games with 7 goals scored in the last 5 matches. Stoke City is in good form, with a commanding 3-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday and a 3-1 victory against Derby recently.
 - Across 23 recorded meetings, Southampton has 9 wins, Stoke City 8 wins, and 6 draws. Neither team has drawn in the last 3 encounters. Southampton are unbeaten in 6 matches against Stoke.
 - Southampton faces absences with James Bree (leg) and William Smallbone (calf) out until early September, impacting squad depth.
 - Southampton benefits from home advantage playing at St. Mary's Stadium. Stoke City faces travel and less favorable away conditions.
 - Southampton aims to remain unbeaten and maintain strong home form early in the Championship. Stoke looks to build on convincing recent wins and challenge on the road.
 
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southampton: -145, Stoke City: 355, Draw: 270 | Southampton | β β β β β 72% | 
| Spread | Southampton: -0.75 -108, Stoke City: 75 -112 | Southampton -0.75 | β β β ββ 68% | 
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -108, Under 2.5: -112 | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 65% | 
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick | 
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southampton -2% | 
| Spread | N/A | 
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 16% | 
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southampton to win on the moneyline, cover the -0.75 goal spread, and the total goals to go over 2.5.
Predicted Score: 2-1