Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Game Overview
Bundesliga clash between home side FC St. Pauli and visiting TSG Hoffenheim, both teams struggling for consistent form near the relegation zone, aiming for a crucial win to gain momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Pauli started strong but have lost their last three matches, conceding in every game. Hoffenheim also on a poor run with two defeats and one draw in last three, but remain unbeaten away this season.
- St. Pauli hold a slight advantage historically with 3 wins in 6 matches against Hoffenheim, including two wins last season. Most prior matches were low-scoring affairs with under 2.5 goals common.
- No major injury news reported affecting starting lineups significantly for either side.
- St. Pauli benefit from a passionate home crowd creating a strong atmosphere at Millerntor-Stadion which often energizes their gameplay.
- Both teams are motivated to climb away from the relegation zone. St. Pauli will push hard at home; Hoffenheim aims to maintain their unbeaten away streak and rebound after recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Pauli: 150, Hoffenheim: 178, Draw: 263 | St. Pauli | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | St. Pauli +0: -122, Hoffenheim +0: 102 | St. Pauli +0 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: 100, Under 2.75: -120 | Under 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC St. Pauli 10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: St. Pauli win; Spread: St. Pauli +0; Over/Under: Under 2.75 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0