Match Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-13
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estádio Cícero Pompeo de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Sao Paulo, having won just 1 of their last 6 matches, hosts Vasco da Gama, who are winless in 7 of their last 8. Both teams are struggling for form and points in the league, with Sao Paulo favored at home but not dominant, while Vasco da Gama’s poor run puts them at a disadvantage[1][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Sao Paulo has struggled recently, with only one win in six. Vasco da Gama is in worse form, winless in seven of eight. Both teams are below expectations but Sao Paulo is marginally better positioned at home.
- Recent head-to-head results are not specified in available data, but traditional encounters have often been competitive. Neither side is dominant in this matchup historically.
- No specific injury news provided in current sources.
- The match is at a major stadium, Morumbi, likely with home support but both teams are underperforming, which could dampen momentum.
- Both teams are in need of a turnaround, but Vasco da Gama’s more desperate situation may add pressure or galvanize effort.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Sao Paulo: -108, Vasco da Gama: 328, Draw: 237 | Sao Paulo win | medium (55%) |
Spread | Sao Paulo: -0.5 -108, Vasco da Gama: +50 -112 | Sao Paulo -0.5 | medium (50%) |
Over/under | Over 2: -118, Under 2: -102 | Under 2 | medium (55%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Sao Paulo -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sao Paulo is favored at home, but their recent poor form tempers expectations. Vasco da Gama’s struggles suggest they are unlikely to win, but a draw is possible given both teams’ lack of confidence. Expect a low-scoring, tight game.
Predicted Score: 1-0