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Canterbury Bulldogs vs. New Zealand Warriors Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Canterbury Bankstown Stadium

Game Overview

The Canterbury Bulldogs face the New Zealand Warriors in a critical NRL clash. Both teams have shown fluctuating form this season, with Bulldogs leveraging a strong home record while Warriors are battling inconsistencies on the road. The match is expected to be highly competitive, with the Bulldogs favored due to home advantage and a better recent performance trend.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Bulldogs have been solid defensively at home, with a few close wins and consistent effort in their last 5 games. The Warriors have struggled defensively in away matches but have shown sparks of attacking prowess recently, though their form remains patchy.
  • Historically, the Bulldogs have edged the Warriors in recent meetings at this venue, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters. However, the Warriors took the most recent matchup, which adds intrigue to this fixture.
  • The Bulldogs have minor injury concerns on their backline but maintain a largely fit squad. The Warriors are missing a key forward due to suspension, which could hinder their ability to contest the ruck and defensive line.
  • Weather forecasts predict mild conditions with light rain, potentially slowing down play but not heavily impacting the game. The Bulldogs enjoy strong home crowd support, which often boosts their in-game intensity.
  • The Bulldogs are fighting to secure a playoff position, increasing their urgency to win at home. The Warriors are aiming to maintain momentum and keep pressure on teams above them on the ladder, making this a high-stakes encounter for both.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline canterbury_bulldogs: -275, new_zealand_warriors: 225, draw: 2300 Canterbury Bulldogs ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread canterbury_bulldogs: -8.5 at -115, new_zealand_warriors: +8.5 at -115 Canterbury Bulldogs to cover -8.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over_42.5: -105, under_42.5: -125 Under 42.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 42.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given home advantage, better defensive structure, and motivation for a playoff spot, the Canterbury Bulldogs are favored to win in a tightly contested game that may see the Warriors push hard but ultimately fall short.

Predicted Score: Canterbury Bulldogs 24 – 16 New Zealand Warriors


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Dolphins vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia

Game Overview

The Dolphins will face the Sydney Roosters in Round 23 of the 2025 NRL season at Suncorp Stadium. This Indigenous Round blockbuster is expected to be a tightly contested match given the teams' competitive form throughout the season and their rivalry in previous encounters.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Sydney Roosters enter as slight favorites given their stronger recent form and historical record. The Dolphins, playing at home at Suncorp Stadium, have shown resilience but are slightly less consistent. Both teams have had a solid season but momentum slightly favors the Roosters.
  • In recent head-to-head matchups, the Sydney Roosters have edged the Dolphins with close results. Their last meetings have been competitive with narrow margins, highlighting a balanced matchup although the Roosters have had an upper hand historically.
  • No major injuries have been reported for either side leading into the match, allowing both teams to field near full-strength lineups.
  • Playing at a neutral venue that is home ground for the Dolphins may provide them a slight advantage. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be ideal for a fast-paced game. The match is part of the Indigenous Round, adding emotional motivation for both teams to perform strongly.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure valuable points late in the season to bolster their positions for finals contention. The Indigenous Round adds further incentive to play with passion and commitment.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dolphins: 102, Sydney Roosters: -121, Draw: 1900 Sydney Roosters win Not available
Spread Dolphins +1.5: -115, Sydney Roosters -1.5: -115 Sydney Roosters -1.5 Not available
Over/under Over 48.5: -115, Under 48.5: -115 Under 48.5 total points Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sydney Roosters -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 48.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters are slightly favored to win this match due to their consistent form and greater experience in close games. However, the Dolphins' home ground advantage and motivation could keep the match very close.

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 24 – 20 Dolphins


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

In Round 23 of the 2025 NRL season, the St George Illawarra Dragons host the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at Jubilee Stadium. Both teams are positioned mid-table, with the Dragons in 9th and Sharks in 8th place. The Dragons seek to rebound from recent losses and their poor home form, while the Sharks aim to extend their unbeaten streak against the Dragons amidst injury challenges.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dragons have lost their last four games played at Jubilee Stadium and are currently struggling for form at home. Meanwhile, the Sharks have won both their encounters against the Dragons this season and maintain a psychological edge. Both teams are coming off defeats last week, indicating vulnerabilities in their recent performances.
  • Cronulla Sharks have never lost to the St George Illawarra Dragons in the current season and hold a clean slate against them. Their 2-0 advantage and ability to maintain pressure in these matchups is a key factor favoring the Sharks.
  • The Sharks face a significant injury toll, including the loss of captain Tiana Penitani Gray due to concussion, weakening their backline options. The Dragons have no major recent injury reports but must overcome confidence issues from their losing streak.
  • The match is played at the Dragons' home ground, Jubilee Stadium, but with no public parking and limited street parking, fan turnout and atmosphere might be subdued, potentially affecting home advantage. Weather or other environmental conditions were not reported as notable factors.
  • Both teams are eager to snap poor runs: Dragons to recover from four consecutive home losses and the Sharks to maintain dominance over a local rival. The Sharks' unbeaten head-to-head record adds to their motivation, while the Dragons will be motivated to end that streak and improve their league standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -205, St George Illawarra Dragons: 172, Draw: 2200 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -7.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: +7.5 -115 Cronulla Sharks to cover -7.5 spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 46.5 -115, Under: 46.5 -115 Under 46.5 total points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite the Dragons' home advantage, the Cronulla Sharks are favored to win due to superior head-to-head form and the psychological edge. The Sharks' resilience despite injuries suggests a hard-fought but likely Sharks victory.

Predicted Score: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 24 – 16 St George Illawarra Dragons


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Canberra Raiders vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-08
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra

Game Overview

The Canberra Raiders will host the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in Round 23 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership at GIO Stadium Canberra. Both teams have shown competitive form throughout the season, setting up an engaging contest. The Raiders look to leverage their home ground advantage while Manly aims to capitalize on their recent momentum.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canberra Raiders have maintained a steady performance pattern with a strong home record and consistent scoring ability. Manly Sea Eagles have displayed resilience with notable defensive improvements and impact players returning.
  • Historically, the match-up is closely contested, with recent clashes showing balanced results. Canberra has a slight edge on home ground in previous encounters but Manly has threatened with dominant away performances.
  • No changes reported for the Raiders squad, with Ricky back at fullback contributing to stability. Manly currently has no major injury concerns publicly reported influencing their lineup for this fixture.
  • Game conditions at GIO Stadium are expected to be favorable with no adverse weather predicted. Crowd support will heavily favor the Raiders given the stadium location.
  • The Raiders are motivated to consolidate their ladder position during a critical phase of the season. Manly aims to secure points to boost their finals aspirations, intensifying team focus and performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline canberra_raiders: -230, manly_sea_eagles: 188, draw: 2200 Canberra Raiders to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread canberra_raiders: -8.5 -105, manly_sea_eagles: 8.5 -125 Canberra Raiders to cover -8.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over_45.5: -115, under_45.5: -115 Under 45.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 45.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Considering home advantage, solid squad health, and balanced historical results, Canberra Raiders are favored to win, but the game could stay competitive with Manly posing a significant challenge. Expect a tightly contested match with Canberra edging out.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 24 – 18 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles


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Newcastle Knights vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-08
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle, Australia

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights will host the Penrith Panthers, the reigning four-time defending NRL champions, in Round 23 of the 2025 season. The Panthers enter as strong favorites due to their dominance in recent years and superior form, while Newcastle aims to leverage their home advantage at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers have maintained a high winning percentage against Newcastle, with the Panthers winning approximately 63% of recent clashes, including a 25-6 win in April 2025. Newcastle Knights have upset them occasionally, but their recent form shows fewer wins against the Panthers. The Panthers have displayed strong defense and consistent scoring, while Newcastle has struggled to keep pace offensively.
  • In the last 30 encounters, Penrith Panthers have won 19 times (63%), Newcastle Knights 10 times (33%), and there has been 1 draw (3%). Recent matches favor the Panthers, who have won key games in 2025 with solid margins.
  • No explicit recent injury updates are available in the search results. Absence or presence of key players should be monitored closer to match day for detailed injury impact analysis.
  • The match is played at Newcastle’s home ground, McDonald Jones Stadium, which could provide a slight edge in crowd support. Weather conditions and pitch quality data were not found in the current search.
  • Penrith Panthers aim to continue their championship dominance, potentially qualifying early for playoffs with a win. Newcastle Knights will be motivated to prove their competitiveness against a top-tier opponent in front of their home fans.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Newcastle Knights: 3.05, Penrith Panthers: 1.25, Draw: 24 Penrith Panthers win ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Newcastle Knights +12.5: -120, Penrith Panthers -12.5: -110 Penrith Panthers to cover -12.5 points ★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Over 44.5 total points ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers win by a significant margin, given their recent superior form, championship experience, and favorable odds.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – Newcastle Knights 14


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Melbourne Storm vs. Brisbane Broncos Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-07
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne

Game Overview

Melbourne Storm will host Brisbane Broncos in Round 23 of the 2025 NRL season at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Both teams have shown competitive form, with Melbourne Storm considered favorites based on recent performance and advanced predictive modeling.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Melbourne Storm have been performing strongly this season, backed by coach Craig Bellamy, offering consistent results and a solid home advantage. Brisbane Broncos, coached by Michael Maguire, have been competitive but are seen as underdogs in this matchup based on current odds and predictions.
  • Previous encounters between these two teams have resulted in close matches, including draws earlier in the season and closely contested games. This historically competitive rivalry adds intensity to the match, but the Storm have maintained a slight edge in home conditions.
  • No recent injury reports significantly impacting lineups have been indicated in the available data, suggesting both teams are close to full strength for this match.
  • Playing at AAMI Park favors Melbourne Storm, giving them familiar conditions and strong crowd support. Weather conditions and travel demands appear standard with no unusual external factors noted.
  • As this is a critical late-season match, both teams are motivated to secure valuable points for finals positioning, with Melbourne Storm aiming to capitalize on home advantage and Broncos looking to upset the top side.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Melbourne Storm: -210, Brisbane Broncos: 176, Draw: 2100 Melbourne Storm win ★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread Melbourne Storm -6.5: -115, Brisbane Broncos +6.5: -115 Melbourne Storm to cover -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 47.5: -115, Under 47.5: -115 Over 47.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm are predicted to win, with a strong probability supported by data-driven models and betting markets favoring the home side.

Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 26 – Brisbane Broncos 18


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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-03
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Sharks Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL Round 22 clash between the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and North Queensland Cowboys promises a highly competitive and closely matched encounter. Both teams are fighting for valuable competition points with the Sharks currently sitting seventh and the Cowboys eleventh on the ladder. The Sharks have the home ground advantage at Sharks Stadium, with vocal support expected, while the Cowboys bring recent road resilience. The game is projected as a balanced contest with moderate scoring and strong defensive pressure.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Cronulla Sharks come into the match riding a three-game winning streak and are looking to regain their attacking mojo after a gritty win over South Sydney. The return of key attacking players Siosifa Talakai and Briton Nikora notably strengthens their lineup. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have shown strong attacking form recently, highlighted by a thrilling 38-32 victory over the Dragons, led by halfback Tom Dearden who has been in outstanding form following his State of Origin heroics. However, defensive weaknesses remain a concern for North Queensland.
  • Recent head-to-head clashes between the Sharks and Cowboys have been very balanced, with recent results split evenly. Power rankings place Sharks slightly higher (13th vs. 7th for Cowboys) but offensive outputs are nearly identical. The defensive edge is marginally in favor of the Sharks. Both teams' consistency this season further indicates the game will be tightly contested.
  • The Sharks benefit from the return of impactful players Siosifa Talakai and Briton Nikora who enhance their attacking threats on the edges. No significant injury issues reported for either side ahead of the match, giving both teams near full strength lineups.
  • The Sharks Stadium atmosphere is seen as intimidating, typically giving the home side an edge. However, the Cowboys have demonstrated strong mental resilience and ability to perform under hostile conditions during their road matches. Weather and field conditions for the match day are currently favorable, with no reported disruptions.
  • Cronulla is motivated to consolidate their position in the top eight, currently sitting two points clear of the ninth-placed Sea Eagles in a congested ladder. The Cowboys, in eleventh place, are eager to capitalize on recent attacking form and remain in finals contention, making this game critical for both sides.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cronulla_Sutherland_Sharks: -240, North_Queensland_Cowboys: 205, Draw: 2500 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks win ★★★☆☆ 57%
Spread Cronulla_Sutherland_Sharks_-8.5: -110, North_Queensland_Cowboys_+8.5: -120 Cronulla Sharks to cover the -8.5 spread narrowly ★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under Over_48.5: -115, Under_48.5: -115 Under 48.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 48.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The prediction leans towards a narrow home victory for the Cronulla Sharks, given their home advantage, slight defensive edge, and return of key attacking players. The margin is expected to be close, within a single converted try difference, with a moderate total score reflecting strong defensive efforts from both sides.

Predicted Score: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 24 – North Queensland Cowboys 20


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Wests Tigers vs. Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Wests Tigers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-03
  • Time: 4:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Campbelltown Stadium, Campbelltown, Australia

Game Overview

The Canterbury Bulldogs are currently second on the ladder and coming into this match on the back of three consecutive wins, showcasing elite defense (conceding an average of just 16 points per game) and a potent attack, notably highlighted by a 42-4 win over Manly. The Wests Tigers have struggled in the head-to-head series recently but show strength at home with a home venue record advantage. Bulldogs are favored but this promises to be a competitive match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Bulldogs demonstrate a strong season performance with a top-tier defense and efficient attack, while the Tigers have been rebuilding and have shown flashes of strength at their home venue, including standout players like Sunia Turuva, who has 6 tries in 6 home games.
  • Overall, Bulldogs lead the head-to-head 27-17 and have won five of the last six clashes. At Campbelltown Stadium, Tigers have a slight edge with a 2-1 record over Bulldogs at this venue.
  • Canterbury Bulldogs will be missing their primary yardage man, which could impact their attacking options. No specific injury details for Wests Tigers were noted, but their squad appears more stable in this regard.
  • Home field advantage slightly favors Wests Tigers, playing at Campbelltown Stadium. Weather and other external conditions are not specifically detailed but should be monitored closer to match day.
  • The Bulldogs are motivated to maintain their strong position on the ladder and continue a winning streak. The Tigers are motivated to capitalize on home advantage and restrict Bulldogs’ scoring, potentially narrowing the gap in the standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -360, Wests Tigers: 285, Draw: 2400 Bulldogs win ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -11.5 -115, Wests Tigers: +11.5 -115 Bulldogs to cover -11.5 spread ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over: 43.5 -115, Under: 43.5 -115 Under 43.5 points ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs 1700%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 43.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Canterbury Bulldogs at 1700% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 70.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Canterbury Bulldogs to win narrowly by 1-12 points, reflecting their strong defense but accounting for Tigers' home venue advantage and improved form.

Predicted Score: Bulldogs 29 – 17 Wests Tigers


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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Game Overview

This Round 22 NRL match features two bottom-half finalists fighting for survival: the 9th-placed Manly Warringah Sea Eagles hosting 10th-placed Sydney Roosters at 4 Pines Park. Both teams have shown flashes of quality in 2025 but suffer from inconsistency. The Roosters recently lost 3 of 4 games while the Sea Eagles ended a 3-game winning streak with a heavy defeat. Key injuries affect Manly, including season-ending loss of star Haumole Olakau'atu. Historically, Manly have won six of nine home games in 2025 and lead their all-time head-to-head narrowly over 43 encounters. The Roosters have won 5 of their past 7 meetings against Manly, making this a very tight contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Manly has been solid at home, winning 6 of 9 at 4 Pines Park this season, though recent form dipped with a heavy loss. The Roosters have fought hard, notably pushing Melbourne Storm closely but falling short in 3 of their last 4, revealing some defensive shortcomings.
  • Across 43 matches, Manly leads with 22 wins to Sydney's 21, showing a historically even rivalry. Recently, the Roosters won 5 of the last 7 clashes, indicating a slight upper hand in recent encounters.
  • Manly faces a significant blow with Haumole Olakau'atu ruled out for the season. Other key players like Waddell expected to start, with Smith and Savala fit, offering some relief. No major injuries reported for the Roosters.
  • The match is played at Manly’s home ground, potentially favoring the Sea Eagles with strong local support. Weather and other external conditions are not specified but should be typical for Sydney in early August.
  • Both teams are motivated by a fight for finals qualification, locked in a battle for spots in the bottom half of the top eight. The packed Brookvale crowd and the significance of the match add intensity to this rivalry.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -134, away: 115, draw: 2100 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread home: -2.5 -110, away: 2.5 -120 Manly to cover -2.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under over: 48.5 110, under: 48.5 -145 Under 48.5 points total ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 48.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the home ground advantage, recent home form, and motivation to secure a finals spot, Manly Warringah Sea Eagles have a slight edge, but the Roosters' recent dominance in head-to-head and resilience keep this prediction tight. Expect a closely contested game with a lean towards Manly pulling a narrow win.

Predicted Score: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 24 – Sydney Roosters 20


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Not specified (likely GIO Stadium, Canberra)

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between St George Illawarra Dragons and Canberra Raiders is set to be competitive, with Canberra showing recent strong form evidenced by their Round 18 victory over the Dragons (28-24). The Raiders have been able to maintain possession well and apply pressure defensively, with solid tackle statistics and effective run meters. Injuries have affected both sides, but the Raiders seem comparatively less impacted in key positions recently.

Key Factors to Consider

  • In their last head-to-head, Canberra Raiders narrowly defeated St George Illawarra Dragons 28-24, showcasing superior run meters (1777 vs 1506) and fewer errors (9 vs 12). Raiders have a better completion rate (30 complete sets vs 24) indicating stronger control of possession. However, Dragons have a physical edge with more tackles (354 vs 333) suggesting tight defense.
  • Recent encounter from Round 18 in July 2025 ended with Canberra Raiders winning by 4 points. Both teams traded tries evenly, but Raiders finished stronger. Historical data suggests Raiders have a slight advantage when playing at home.
  • St George Illawarra Dragons are dealing with significant injuries including Hamish Stewart (concussion), Luciano Leilua (quad), Toby Couchman (shoulder), Nathan Lawson (arm), and Christian Tuipulotu (hamstring). Damien Cook has recovered from an ankle knock. Raiders are missing Josh Papalii but have brought in reinforcements on the bench.
  • The match will likely be played at GIO Stadium in Canberra, offering home-ground advantage to the Raiders. Weather and pitch conditions are not specified but can influence conditions. Fan presence and team motivation from previous narrow results may fuel a passionate contest.
  • Both teams will be motivated for a strong finish in the Telstra Premiership season. Raiders aim to consolidate their form and leverage home advantage after a close win, while Dragons seek to overturn recent setbacks and injury challenges.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders: -218, St George Illawarra Dragons: 185, Draw: 2200 Canberra Raiders ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Canberra Raiders: -6.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: 6.5 -115 Canberra Raiders -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 46.5 -105, Under: 46.5 -125 Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Canberra Raiders are favored to win, driven by home advantage, superior recent performance, and fewer key injuries. A close game is expected but odds favor the Raiders to cover the spread and edge out the Dragons.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 26 – 20 St George Illawarra Dragons


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