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Jesse Butler vs. Carlos Calderon Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jesse Butler vs Carlos Calderon – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: July 18, 2025
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Alario Center, Westwego, Louisiana, United States

Game Overview

Featherweight bout between Jesse Butler (11-5-0) and Carlos 'The Chief' Calderon (7-3-0) at Fury FC 106[1][2][3]. Calderon is the betting favorite despite Butler's superior record and recent momentum. Both fighters are experienced and enter off wins, but significant differences in activity, level of competition, and rankings may influence the outcome.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Butler is ranked higher (#267 FW) and is on a five-fight winning streak, while Calderon (#671 FW) has also won his last fight[4][5]. Butler's record includes more pro fights and he has faced tougher opponents recently, suggesting he may be more battle-tested.
  • No prior head-to-head bouts recorded.
  • No reported injuries as of the latest available information.
  • Fight is in Louisiana, close to both fighters' region, so no significant travel or climate adjustments. Fighters likely to have similar crowd support.
  • Butler is on a hot streak and may seek a contract in a bigger promotion, while Calderon is the underdog by ranking but favored by odds, which may indicate betting markets have inside information or see stylistic advantages for Calderon.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Calderon: -155, Butler: +115 Lean towards Calderon, but value is on Butler given his form and ranking[4][5]. 65% confidence in Calderon, 35% in Butler

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jesse Butler -100%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

This is a classic clash of momentum (Butler) versus market confidence (Calderon). Butler's superior ranking and win streak suggest he is undervalued by the odds. However, Calderon is the modest favorite for a reason, potentially due to stylistic matchups or intangible factors not fully reflected in public data. The most likely outcome is a competitive, closely contested fight, with Calderon favored to edge a decision, though Butler's form and experience cannot be discounted[4][5].

Predicted Score: Carlos Calderon by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28).


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Braxton Smith vs. Daniel James Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Braxton Smith vs Daniel James – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-18
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Miami, FL

Game Overview

The MMA bout between Braxton Smith and Daniel James is part of a heavyweight tournament event held in Miami on July 18, 2025. Both fighters are competing in the Karate Combat Last Man Standing format, which emphasizes striking skills and endurance.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Braxton Smith and Daniel James have demonstrated strong performances leading up to this fight in the Karate Combat series. Daniel James is currently favored according to moneyline odds, indicating a higher perceived performance level or momentum.
  • There is no direct head-to-head data available between Braxton Smith and Daniel James prior to this match. Their styles and previous fights in the tournament should be considered for comparative strengths.
  • No reports of injuries impacting either fighter have been disclosed leading up to the event, suggesting both athletes are likely at full health.
  • The fight is held as part of a major two-day Karate Combat event featuring world titles and a heavyweight tournament. The event being broadcast free on YouTube increases visibility and potential pressure on fighters.
  • Given the tournament structure and stakes involving titles and advancement, motivation for both fighters is expected to be high. Promotional activity and fan engagement hint at strong competitive drive.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Braxton Smith: 165, Daniel James: -235 Daniel James ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Braxton Smith: +1.5, Daniel James: -1.5 Daniel James to cover -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over: 1.9, under: 1.9 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Daniel James -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Daniel James at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Daniel James is projected to win the match based on current odds and inferred momentum. His favored moneyline odds reflect stronger market confidence.

Predicted Score: Daniel James wins by decision or knockout within 3 rounds


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Chase Sherman vs. Timothy Johnson Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Chase Sherman vs Timothy Johnson – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-18
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Undisclosed MMA Venue

Game Overview

The upcoming heavyweight MMA bout between Chase Sherman and Timothy Johnson promises a clash of contrasting styles. Sherman, known for his power striking and finish rate, faces Johnson, a seasoned grappler with an 18-11 record, who recently competed against top contenders such as Alexander Romanov. This fight is pivotal for both fighters to gain momentum in the competitive heavyweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Chase Sherman is recognized for his knockout power and has a history of securing early finishes, though he can be vulnerable against strong grapplers. Timothy Johnson, with a solid ground game and experience in the Professional Fighters League, demonstrates high grappling accuracy and control but has a mixed striking output. Both fighters have had fluctuating recent performances but remain dangerous in their specialties.
  • There are no recorded previous fights between Chase Sherman and Timothy Johnson, making this matchup a fresh encounter where tactical adaptability will be crucial.
  • No current reported injuries for either fighter prior to the bout. Both appear to be in competitive condition based on recent fight activity and records.
  • The fight taking place in a neutral venue with no significant external conditions affecting performance. Both fighters have motivation to secure a win to enhance their rankings and career prospects.
  • Sherman seeks to reaffirm his reputation as a heavyweight contender by leveraging his striking power, while Johnson aims to utilize his grappling and positional control to outlast and neutralize Sherman’s offense.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Chase Sherman: -163, Timothy Johnson: 123 Timothy Johnson to win ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Chase Sherman -1.5: -120, Timothy Johnson +1.5: 100 Timothy Johnson +1.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Chase Sherman 36%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chase Sherman at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Johnson's grappling edge and recent experience against high-level opponents, alongside Sherman's powerful yet sometimes susceptible striking style, the prediction leans slightly towards Timothy Johnson securing a decision or late stoppage victory.

Predicted Score: Timothy Johnson wins by decision or late round finish


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O'Shay Jordan vs. Sean Rose Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: O'Shay Jordan vs Sean Rose – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-17
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Observatory North Park, 2891 University Ave, San Diego, California, United States

Game Overview

A heavyweight bout between O'Shay Jordan (3-2-0) and Sean Rose (2-3-0) at Tuff-N-Uff 146, scheduled for three 5-minute rounds. Both fighters are US-based and carry similar records, indicating a competitive matchup with narrow margins for error. The fight will be broadcast on UFC Fight Pass as part of a broader combat sports event.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both fighters have closely matched records—Jordan at 3-2-0 and Rose at 2-3-0—suggesting neither has a clear dominance in terms of overall fight outcomes. However, Jordan's record reflects a slightly higher win percentage and perhaps greater recent momentum.
  • No prior matchup between Jordan and Rose is indicated in the available data, making this their first encounter.
  • No injury information is provided in the available data. Both fighters appear scheduled and ready for the fight.
  • The fight takes place in California, both are local fighters likely acclimatized to the venue and conditions. No significant travel or environmental disruptions noted.
  • With closely matched records, both fighters have significant stakes in improving their standings. The appearance on UFC Fight Pass could provide extra motivation for both to deliver a standout performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -240, away: +165 O'Shay Jordan Moneyline Moderate

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline O'Shay Jordan -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: O'Shay Jordan at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The available moneyline odds favor O'Shay Jordan (-240) over Sean Rose (+165), suggesting bookmakers see Jordan as the more probable winner. Given their similar records and local factors, Jordan is still the slight favorite. However, the narrow historical margin between these fighters means there is a heightened risk for an upset. Expect a competitive, high-stakes affair that could go the distance.

Predicted Score: N/A (MMA does not use a traditional scoring system for bout outcomes; result is by knockout, submission, or decision.)


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Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 4:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee, United States

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Fight Night event features a heavyweight main event bout between Derrick Lewis, a former UFC Heavyweight Championship challenger, and Tallison Teixeira, an undefeated heavyweight prospect. The fight is set to take place on July 12, 2025, at Bridgestone Arena, Nashville. Lewis brings vast experience and knockout power, while Teixeira offers an undefeated record and the momentum of a rising star. This matchup presents a classic clash of veteran toughness versus youthful potential.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Derrick Lewis has demonstrated resilience and knockout capability throughout his UFC career, frequently relying on power striking. Tallison Teixeira, undefeated so far, has shown technical proficiency and durability, with a growing reputation in the heavyweight division. Lewis' experience at the championship level contrasts with Teixeira's momentum as a prospect.
  • This will be the first professional encounter between Derrick Lewis and Tallison Teixeira, as Teixeira is an undefeated prospect and no previous fights against Lewis are recorded.
  • No significant injury reports for either fighter have been disclosed leading up to the fight, indicating both are expected to compete at full capacity.
  • The fight is taking place in a neutral venue for both fighters at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN, USA. The event is part of UFC's seventh visit to Nashville, which may bring a strong local audience but no direct home advantage.
  • Lewis is motivated to prove he remains a top contender and to maintain relevance in the division after past title contention. Teixeira is highly motivated to extend his undefeated streak and solidify his status as a future title challenger.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Derrick Lewis: +215, Tallison Teixeira: -265 Tallison Teixeira ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Derrick Lewis: -5.5 @ +225, Tallison Teixeira: +5.5 @ -320 Tallison Teixeira +5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: +180, Under 1.5 rounds: -238 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tallison Teixeira -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tallison Teixeira at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tallison Teixeira is favored to win due to his undefeated record and stronger recent form. Lewis' knockout power remains a threat, but Teixeira's technical skills and youth likely provide him an edge in probability to secure a decision or late stoppage victory.

Predicted Score: Tallison Teixeira wins by unanimous decision or TKO in round 2


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Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-13
  • Time: 3:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

Stephen Thompson, a former two-time welterweight title challenger, seeks to end a two-fight losing streak against rising prospect Gabriel Bonfim, who is on an upward trajectory in the welterweight division. Bonfim has shown explosive early finishes in his UFC tenure, with recent victories restoring confidence after a knockout loss. This fight represents a crucial opportunity for both: Thompson aims to reaffirm his elite status late in his career, while Bonfim strives to break into the top 15 rankings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Stephen Thompson has a long UFC career with resilience demonstrated by bouncing back after losing streaks, including notable comebacks against top opponents. Gabriel Bonfim is an ascending talent with powerful finishing ability early in fights, recently recovering well from an upset loss by securing two consecutive wins.
  • No documented previous fights between Stephen Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim, making this their first direct meeting.
  • No publicly reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
  • The fight takes place at a major UFC event in Nashville, with Stephen Thompson competing as one of the oldest fighters on the UFC roster, which may influence experience versus youth dynamics. Fan and media attention is high given Thompson's veteran status and Bonfim's rising prospect profile.
  • Thompson is highly motivated to halt his losing skid and chase UFC legends' records late in his career. Bonfim is motivated to continue his rapid climb up the welterweight rankings and establish himself as a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gabriel Bonfim: -425, Stephen Thompson: 330 Gabriel Bonfim to win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Gabriel Bonfim: -3.5 -205, Stephen Thompson: +3.5 150 Gabriel Bonfim to cover the -3.5 spread ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5: -105, Under 2.5: -125 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gabriel Bonfim -14%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The bout is expected to be competitive with Bonfim favored by betting markets due to his recent form and finishing ability. However, Thompson’s experience and previous success in overcoming losing streaks inject uncertainty into the outcome. The prediction leans towards a close victory by Gabriel Bonfim, likely by decision or late finish.

Predicted Score: Gabriel Bonfim wins by unanimous decision or late stoppage (round 3)


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Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 2:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Game Overview

Nate Landwehr faces Morgan Charriere in a featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira. Charriere is favored with odds reflecting his recent performance and strategic advantages.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Morgan Charriere comes into this fight with a strong record of 20-11-1, though his UFC performances have been mixed at 2-2. Nate Landwehr, with a record of 18-6, has shown resilience in his fights.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters, making historical data irrelevant.
  • Landwehr recently healed from a hand injury, which might affect his readiness or performance.
  • Fighting in his home state could give Landwehr an emotional boost, but Charriere's experience might level the playing field.
  • Both fighters are motivated as they seek to improve their standings in the UFC.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Charriere: -270, Landwehr: 220 Morgan Charriere ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Charriere: -3.5 -110, Landwehr: 3.5 -120 Charriere Wins by Decision or Stoppage ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -166, Under: 2.5 130 Over 2.5 Rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Morgan Charriere -18%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Morgan Charriere is predicted to win due to his overall experience and recent performances.

Predicted Score: Charriere by Decision (29-28)


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Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-13
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

The MMA match between Vitor Petrino and Austen Lane is scheduled for July 13, 2025, at UFC Fight Night in Nashville. Petrino enters as a heavy favorite with significant betting odds, reflecting his strong track record and form. Lane recently dealt with personal challenges affecting his preparation but is expected to bring resilience to the fight. The match will be a heavyweight contest with a high likelihood of early finishes given the fighters' styles.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vitor Petrino has shown superior performance in recent fights with consistent wins and finishes, leveraging his striking and grappling skillset effectively. Austen Lane has had mixed results, with some struggles likely affected by external personal issues but remains a dangerous opponent with knockout power.
  • No prior direct matches have taken place between Petrino and Lane, making this their first encounter. Comparisons rely on individual past performances and style matchups.
  • Austen Lane was reportedly dealing with his father's injury before his last fight, which might have impacted his preparation. There are no public reports of injuries from Petrino leading up to the bout.
  • The fight is part of UFC Fight Night at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, a neutral venue with no apparent advantage to either fighter. Lane’s recent personal challenges might affect his mental state, while Petrino appears focused.
  • Petrino, as the favorite, aims to solidify his status and capitalize on momentum. Lane seeks redemption and to overcome adversity, providing him strong motivation to disrupt expectations.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Austen Lane: +500, Vitor Petrino: -700 Vitor Petrino ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Austen Lane +3.5: +350, Vitor Petrino -3.5: -550 Vitor Petrino -3.5 ★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: +140, Under 1.5 rounds: -180 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vitor Petrino -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vitor Petrino at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vitor Petrino is predicted to win by decision or late stoppage given his superior form and stronger betting support. Austen Lane may put up a tough fight but is less likely to overcome the odds.

Predicted Score: Vitor Petrino wins by late-round TKO or unanimous decision


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Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-13
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Fight Night features a heavyweight bout between Junior Tafa, a powerful kickboxer, and Tuco Tokkos, a skilled grappler. This match pits Tafa's striking prowess against Tokkos' ground game in a classic style clash.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Junior Tafa has demonstrated strong striking ability and athleticism in his recent fights, while Tuco Tokkos is coming off consecutive losses but is known for his grappling and submission skills. Both fighters bring contrasting strengths that will shape the bout.
  • This will be the first meeting between Junior Tafa and Tuco Tokkos, so no prior head-to-head data is available.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • The fight is taking place at UFC Fight Night in Nashville, a neutral venue with no home advantage. Both fighters have expressed motivation to rebound and prove themselves.
  • Tuco Tokkos is motivated to break his losing streak and reestablish himself in the heavyweight division, while Junior Tafa aims to continue his rise with a decisive win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Junior Tafa: -175, Tuco Tokkos: 145 Junior Tafa ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Junior Tafa -3.5: -150, Tuco Tokkos +3.5: 110 Junior Tafa -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: 105, Under 1.5 rounds: -135 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Junior Tafa -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Junior Tafa is favored to win by utilizing superior striking and maintaining distance to avoid Tokkos' grappling. The fight is expected to be decided in the later rounds or potentially by TKO due to Tafa's power and volume.

Predicted Score: Junior Tafa wins by TKO in Round 2


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Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia Jr. Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia Jr. – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: July 12, 2025
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

Calvin Kattar, on a four-fight losing streak, faces rising prospect Steve Garcia Jr., who has won five consecutive fights. This matchup brings contrasting streaks and styles, with Kattar needing a win to revitalize his career and Garcia aiming to prove himself against ranked opposition.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Calvin Kattar is struggling with four consecutive losses, while Steve Garcia Jr. is on a five-fight winning streak.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
  • No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter.
  • The crowd in Nashville could influence the energy and performance of the fighters.
  • Garcia is highly motivated to defeat a ranked opponent and climb the rankings. Kattar is equally motivated to end his losing streak and save his UFC career.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Calvin Kattar: 105, Steve Garcia Jr.: -125 Steve Garcia Jr. ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Calvin Kattar: +3.5 -150, Steve Garcia Jr.: -3.5 110 Steve Garcia Jr. by decision or late stoppage ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under over: 1.5 -160, under: 1.5 124 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Steve Garcia Jr. 4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Steve Garcia Jr. at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Steve Garcia Jr. is favored due to his recent success and aggressive style, which has led to five straight knockouts.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Steve Garcia Jr.


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