Match Analysis: Jack Congdon vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-02
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Las Vegas, UFC Contender Series

Game Overview

The bout features Jack Congdon (7-1) from New Bedford and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (7-2) in a welterweight MMA contest on Dana White's UFC Contender Series. Congdon is a taekwondo and nogi grappling base fighter transitioning from lighter competition to higher caliber opponents. Lebosnoyani, nicknamed 'Mufasa', is a submission specialist with a stronger strength of schedule and two career losses both by strikes. The fight represents a pivotal career moment for Congdon as he faces a more experienced and proven opponent.

Key Factors to Consider

• Congdon holds a 7-1 professional record with notable pace and finishing ability but has faced limited elite competition. Lebosnoyani (7-2) has better strength of schedule, excels in submissions, and has finished opponents including wins by rear-naked choke.
• This is their first and only matchup scheduled for September 2, 2025, with no prior head-to-head history.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Congdon fights in his first national spotlight event in Las Vegas on ESPN+, under pressure to prove himself. Lebosnoyani has moved up weight classes from lightweight to welterweight, adjusting his style accordingly.
• Congdon is highly motivated to secure a UFC contract after years of grinding at the regional level. Lebosnoyani seeks to demonstrate skills against a fast starter with a solid submission game, aiming to exploit Congdon's prior submission loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jack Congdon: +330, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: -400	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Jack Congdon: +1.5, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: -1.5	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over_1.5: +145, under_1.5: -165	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani to win by submission, leveraging his superior grappling and experience advantage over Congdon.

Predicted Score: Lebosnoyani wins by submission in round 2

Match Analysis: Darren Till vs Luke Rockhold – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Manchester, United Kingdom

Game Overview

This bout features former UFC fighters Darren Till and Luke Rockhold transitioning into professional boxing, headlining the Misfits & DAZN X Series event in Manchester. Till, with a 3-0 boxing record and increasing momentum, faces Rockhold, a former UFC middleweight champion, marking Rockhold's toughest boxing test yet. The match is highly anticipated, blending UFC pedigree with crossover boxing appeal.

Key Factors to Consider

• Darren Till has shown impressive form in boxing with a 3-0 record in 2025, building momentum with solid performances. Luke Rockhold, while a formidable UFC veteran, is newer to boxing, making this his most significant professional boxing challenge. Both fighters bring elite combat experience, but Till's current boxing activity gives him an edge.
• No previous boxing matches have occurred between Till and Rockhold. Their UFC encounters were limited, but both were competitive middleweight fighters with differing fighting styles; Till prized striking and pressure, Rockhold known for wrestling and technical striking. This is their first professional boxing clash.
• No publicly reported injuries affecting either Darren Till or Luke Rockhold ahead of the fight. Both appear physically prepared for the bout with no noted recent lay-offs or medical concerns.
• The fight is part of the Misfits X Series 22 event, which blends influencer culture and professional combat sports, increasing pressure and spotlight. The last-minute rule changes agreed during the pre-fight press conference may influence fight dynamics. The venue is Till’s home ground atmosphere-wise, as the fight is in Manchester near his native England, possibly favoring his morale.
• Till is motivated to continue his undefeated boxing streak and secure a new multi-fight contract with Misfits, aiming to solidify his crossover boxing career. Rockhold aims to prove his skill in a new combat sport environment, seeking a signature win over a popular fellow UFC alumnus that could define his post-UFC career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darren Till: -1500, Luke Rockhold: 850	Darren Till	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Till -2.5 rounds / Rockhold +2.5 rounds (assumed typical spread)	Till by decision or stoppage	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 7.5 rounds / Under 7.5 rounds (typical for 8-round fight)	Under 7.5 rounds (bout finishes early)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Darren Till -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Darren Till is favored to win given his active and successful transition to boxing, higher momentum, and home crowd advantage. Luke Rockhold will present a tough challenge, but Till's boxing experience and form provide a notable edge.

Predicted Score: Till wins by TKO in round 5

Match Analysis: Alik Lorenz vs Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Location TBD

Game Overview

Light heavyweight matchup between Alik Lorenz (6-1) and Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (6-0) scheduled for Dana White's Contender Series. Lorenz is a fast starter with heavy power and a 100% finish rate but has a shaky chin and weak takedown defense. Yakhyaev is the current Ares FC champion with a multifaceted finish record including decisions, KOs, and submissions, known for his strong wrestling and ground game.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lorenz is 4-0 under the Cage Warriors banner and has a fast, aggressive style relying on power and physicality to break opponents down, while Yakhyaev holds a perfect 6-0 record, with a balanced skill set and recent experience in title fights showing both striking power and elite wrestling.
• No prior meetings between Lorenz and Yakhyaev; both have combined nine first-round finishes but Lorenz has never gone to decision, whereas Yakhyaev has wins by all methods including decisions.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter prior to the match.
• Fight takes place on Dana White’s Contender Series, likely increasing pressure on both as they seek UFC contracts; Yakhyaev represents MMA Nurnberg camp, which is less known but producing a top prospect.
• High motivation on both sides with Yakhyaev aiming to continue his winning streak and secure UFC contract after recent title bouts, and Lorenz on a quest to rebound from an early career loss and maintain his 100% finish rate.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev: -900, Alik Lorenz: 600	Pick Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Yakhyaev -1.5: -120, Lorenz +1.5: +100	Yakhyaev to cover -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 190, Under 1.5: -240	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is favored to win due to superior technical skills, versatility, and wrestling dominance. Lorenz’s power and fast start may make the fight competitive but Yakhyaev's grappling and ability to finish by multiple methods gives him an edge.

Predicted Score: Yakhyaev wins by submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Cristian Pérez vs Manoel Sousa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Season 9, Week 3 (venue not explicitly stated)

Game Overview

Cristian Pérez (13-1) and Manoel Sousa (12-1) face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series. Pérez is known for his dynamic striking and grappling versatility but has shown inconsistencies and cardio issues. Sousa is a powerful, physically imposing fighter with solid defensive skills and significant finishing ability, including multiple second-round finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pérez is a fast starter with good submissions and striking variety but is prone to defensive lapses, exposed chin, and poor takedown defense. Sousa has more experience against high-level competition (LFA, Bellator, PFL) and is known for his pressure, knockout power, and grappling control, especially in grappling exchanges.
• This is their first meeting in MMA. Sousa holds a slight edge overall due to experience and fight style, which counters Pérez's versatility with better positional control and power.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the match.
• Pérez has not fought in almost two years and is coming off a loss in Karate Combat. Sousa is the fresher fighter with continuous MMA activity and experience against UFC-level opponents. Both fighters are highly motivated for UFC contracts.
• Both fighters seek to secure a UFC contract, making this a high-stakes, highly motivated matchup. Sousa’s more consistent recent performances and power give him a psychological edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cristian Perez: +240, Manoel Sousa: -300	Manoel Sousa	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +175	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Manoel Sousa -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manoel Sousa at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manoel Sousa is favored to win by TKO in round three due to superior power, control in grappling exchanges, and defensive soundness. Pérez's versatility and explosiveness make it potentially competitive but Sousa’s strengths are expected to prevail.

Predicted Score: Sousa wins by TKO Round 3

Match Analysis: Damon Wilson vs Márcio Barbosa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

This is a featherweight main card MMA bout between Damon Wilson and Márcio Barbosa at Dana White's Contender Series. Barbosa is a powerful knockout artist with a record of 16-2, known for finishing most of his fights in the first round. Wilson, aged 32, with a 9-2 record, is a technically skilled striker with strong wrestling credentials and a three-fight winning streak under Cage Warriors. Barbosa is making his US debut, and the matchup is viewed as a high-stakes, exciting contest with contrasting fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Barbosa has an explosive finish rate with 15 of his 16 wins coming by knockout, 13 in the first round. Wilson is a veteran known for technical striking, use of feints, and solid wrestling, but has some defensive weaknesses and cardio concerns.
• No recorded prior matches between Damon Wilson and Márcio Barbosa, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Barbosa fights in his US debut, which can impact performance positively or negatively. The fight's placement on Dana White's Contender Series increases pressure and motivation.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a UFC contract. Barbosa’s recent knockout streak boosts confidence, while Wilson aims to continue his winning momentum and improve his stock.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Damon Wilson: 265, Márcio Barbosa: -340	Márcio Barbosa	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Damon Wilson: +1.5, Márcio Barbosa: -1.5	Márcio Barbosa -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 155, Under 1.5: -185	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Márcio Barbosa -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Márcio Barbosa is likely to win by early knockout due to his superior power and finishing ability. Damon Wilson’s technical skills and experience could extend the fight, but Barbosa’s power presents a significant threat.

Predicted Score: Márcio Barbosa wins by 1st round knockout

Match Analysis: Darion Abbey vs Donte Johnson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: DWCS 2025: Week 3

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout features Darion Abbey (7-4) facing Donte Johnson (5-0) in a light-heavyweight contest at the DWCS 2025 Week 3 event. Abbey is the older, larger fighter with significant reach and knockout power, while Johnson remains undefeated with a perfect record, relying heavily on KO/TKO finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Abbey has a 7-4 record with 5 KO/TKO wins and 1 submission, showing a balanced fight style with finishing ability. Johnson holds an undefeated 5-0 record, all wins by KO/TKO, highlighting his striking potency but less experience against tough opponents.
• No recorded previous encounters between Darion Abbey and Donte Johnson. This will be their first meeting.
• No recent or reported injuries for either fighter have been disclosed prior to this bout.
• The fight takes place at DWCS 2025 Week 3, an important showcase event that can motivate both fighters to perform well and impress for higher-tier UFC opportunities.
• Johnson, being undefeated and younger, likely has strong motivation to maintain his perfect record and prove himself. Abbey aims to rebound and leverage his experience to claim victory and revitalize his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darion Abbey: +275, Donte Johnson: -350	Donte Johnson	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_1.5: +190, under_1.5: -230	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Donte Johnson -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Donte Johnson is favored to win due to his undefeated streak, superior odds, and momentum, but Darion Abbey's experience and physical advantages create a competitive matchup. A probable scenario is a KO/TKO finish favoring Johnson, though Abbey's endurance and reach could allow him to capitalize if the fight goes longer.

Predicted Score: Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2

Match Analysis: Trent Miller vs Ryan Gandra – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series 2025 Week 3 (Venue TBD)

Game Overview

The middleweight bout features Trent Miller (8-2) versus Ryan Gandra (7-1). Miller is stepping in on short notice and has a power-heavy, aggressive style with weaknesses in cardio, defense, and chin durability. Gandra, making his US debut, is more balanced with KO/TKO, submission, and decision wins and is considered more athletic and dynamic.

Key Factors to Consider

• Miller trains with the elite Xtreme Couture team, whereas Gandra's camp details are less highlighted but he has demonstrated versatility in finishes.
• No prior encounters between Miller and Gandra; this will be their first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Miller accepted the fight on short notice, potentially impacting his preparation and conditioning. Gandra is making his US debut, which can add motivation but also pressure.
• Gandra is highly motivated to impress in his US debut, while Miller seeks to capitalize despite short notice, relying on his power and aggression.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ryan Gandra: -370, Trent Miller: 295	Ryan Gandra	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Ryan Gandra -1.5: -150, Trent Miller +1.5: 130	Ryan Gandra -1.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 125, Under 1.5: -155	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ryan Gandra -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ryan Gandra via first-round knockout, leveraging superior athleticism, conditioning, and striking precision, with a likely finish before Miller can capitalize on his power.

Predicted Score: Ryan Gandra wins by KO in Round 1

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Match Analysis: Levi Rigters vs Ben Sosoli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: To be confirmed

Game Overview

The MMA bout between Levi Rigters and Ben Sosoli showcases a classic striker versus pressure fighter matchup. Rigters, with superior reach and technical striking ability, aims to control the fight at range. Sosoli will likely attempt to close the distance to neutralize Rigters' height advantage, using resilience and grappling to impose his game plan. Both fighters possess knockout power, making the fight potentially explosive with high volatility in outcomes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Levi Rigters is known for his precise striking and range control, having a technically superior style. Ben Sosoli has demonstrated durability and pressure fighting, capable of taking fights into later rounds and overwhelms opponents with physicality.
• No previous fights between Rigters and Sosoli found, making this a fresh matchup with unknown adaptations.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter prior to this bout.
• No notable external factors such as travel issues or weight problems reported; both fighters appear prepared for the event.
• Rigters looks to reinforce his rising status with a strong win, while Sosoli aims for an upset and to prove his resilience against a top striker.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Spread	Levi Rigters -1.5: Not available, Ben Sosoli +1.5: Not available	Levi Rigters to cover spread	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: Not available, Under 2.5 rounds: Not available	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Levi Rigters predicted to win by decision or late stoppage due to superior striking and reach control, with Ben Sosoli likely to push aggressively but struggle to consistently close distance.

Predicted Score: Levi Rigters wins via unanimous decision or stoppage in Round 3 or 4

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Match Analysis: Alin Nechita vs Naim Hebbar – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Rotterdam Ahoy, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Game Overview

The highly anticipated heavyweight superfight between Alin Nechita and Naim Hebbar is set for August 23, 2025, at Rotterdam Ahoy, as part of GLORY 103. Both fighters bring contrasting styles and strong motivation to claim dominance in the last heavyweight standing contest. Nechita, known as 'The Beast', leverages precise striking and conditioning, while Hebbar is expected to utilize resilience and counterattack tactics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alin Nechita holds a professional record of 17 wins, 1 loss, and 0 draws with a strong GLORY record of 1-0-0. He averages 5.33 strikes landed per minute with a striking accuracy of 43.24%. His defensive metric shows he absorbs 15.89 strikes per minute but maintains a positive striking differential of +10.6. Naim Hebbar's detailed stats are less publicly documented, but his reputation as a counter-striker and durable competitor is well recognized.
• This match appears to be their first professional encounter with no direct head-to-head fights recorded, making the strategies and adaptability during the fight critical to the outcome.
• No reported injuries have surfaced linking either fighter near the event date, suggesting both will enter the bout at full fitness and capability.
• The fight is part of GLORY 103, a flagship event drawing international attention. The venue, Rotterdam Ahoy, is known for its high energy and professional fight setups. There are no weather or travel disruptions expected.
• Alin Nechita is motivated to assert himself as a top contender in the heavyweight division following his strong record and GLORY debut win. Naim Hebbar aims to prove his resilience and skill set by upsetting a highly favored opponent in a prominent showcase event.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alin_Nechita: -145, Naim_Hebbar: +125, Draw: +800	Alin Nechita to win	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Alin_Nechita_-1.5: +110, Naim_Hebbar_+1.5: -130	Alin Nechita covers -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -105, under_2.5_rounds: -115	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on Nechita’s statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and positive striking differential, alongside his recent competitive form, the prediction favors Alin Nechita to win by decision or late stoppage. Hebbar’s durability could prolong the fight, but Nechita's pressure and precision are likely to secure victory.

Predicted Score: Alin Nechita wins by decision, 3 rounds to 0

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Match Analysis: Mike Kena vs Errol Koning – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Unknown venue (possibly The Hangar or Nevada, United States area based on context)

Game Overview

The match between Mike Kena and Errol Koning is a welterweight grudge fight scheduled for August 23, 2025, as part of GLORY 103. Mike Kena holds an 8-1 record with 7 KOs, while Errol Koning has a more extensive 47-15 record with 15 KOs. Both fighters bring significant knockout power and experience, with Koning having a sizable volume of fights and Kena showing a strong KO ratio in fewer bouts.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mike Kena has demonstrated high finishing ability with 7 KOs in 8 wins and only one loss, indicating strong striking. Errol Koning, with a long professional career and 47 wins, brings experience and technical maturity but has a lower KO ratio. Kena is likely the rising prospect, while Koning is the seasoned veteran.
• No documented previous meetings found between Mike Kena and Errol Koning, making this their first encounter and adding unpredictability to their matchup.
• No injuries reported or known for either fighter at the time of this analysis.
• The fight is part of GLORY 103, a major event streamed on platforms such as TrillerTV. The exact venue is not conclusively identified but is associated with locations like Nevada or California, possibly influencing travel or local support factors.
• As a welterweight grudge match, motivation for both fighters is expected to be high. Kena is likely motivated to prove himself against an experienced opponent, while Koning aims to maintain his veteran status and leverage his experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mike Kena: -165, Errol Koning: +140	Mike Kena to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Mike Kena -1.5: -120, Errol Koning +1.5: -110	Mike Kena -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mike Kena is predicted to win by KO or TKO due to his higher finishing rate and momentum as a younger, aggressive fighter, despite Koning’s experience. The confidence in this prediction is moderate to high given the available data and Kena's striking effectiveness.

Predicted Score: Mike Kena via KO/TKO in Round 3