This light heavyweight MMA bout features undefeated debutant Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (7-0) facing experienced but winless-in-UFC Raffael Cerqueira (11-3, 0-3 UFC). The fight is part of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker, marking UFC's first event in Qatar. Yakhyaev is favored by bookmakers due to his undefeated record, discipline, cardio, and grappling superiority, while Cerqueira looks to redeem his UFC struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
Yakhyaev enters with a perfect 7-0 record, demonstrating finishing ability with early round KOs, submissions, and strong grappling. Cerqueira has more professional fights (11-3) but has struggled in UFC bouts (0-3), indicating difficulty adapting at elite level. Yakhyaev’s versatility strikes and grappling are seen as superior.
No prior matchups between Yakhyaev and Cerqueira exist, making this their first encounter.
No reported injuries or fitness issues for either fighter prior to the bout.
The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, which is UFC’s debut event location, possibly favoring Yakhyaev’s conditioning and mental preparedness as he fights under expected peak shape and discipline.
Yakhyaev is motivated to secure a strong UFC debut and maintain undefeated status, boosting his career trajectory. Cerqueira is driven to overcome his UFC losing streak and prove he belongs at this level.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -1350, away: 800
Yakhyaev win
★★★★☆ 85%
Spread
home: -7.5 -800, away: 7.5 450
Yakhyaev to win by more than 7.5 points (dominant finish)
★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under
over: 1.5 230, under: 1.5 -315
Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)
★★★★☆ 75%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev 737%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 1.5 -21%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev at 737% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 92.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is predicted to win by early TKO or ground-and-pound dominance, likely in the first round, leveraging his superior cardio, discipline, and grappling to control and finish Cerqueira.
UFC Fight Night 265 features a flyweight bout between Russia's Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2 MMA record, 6-1 UFC) and Japan's Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5 MMA record, 7-1 UFC). This marks Horiguchi's long-awaited return to the UFC after nearly a decade away, competing primarily in Bellator and Rizin. Ulanbekov enters as a heavy favorite with four consecutive UFC victories, while Horiguchi returns as a former UFC flyweight title challenger and multiple-time world champion across different promotions. The stylistic matchup pits Ulanbekov's wrestling-centric approach against Horiguchi's striking proficiency and experience.
Key Factors to Consider
Tagir Ulanbekov has demonstrated consistent performance with a 6-1 UFC record and has won four consecutive fights, most recently defeating Azat Maksum via unanimous decision in June 2025. He averages 3.37 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy, absorbs 3.36 strikes per minute, and averages 2.94 takedowns every 15 minutes with 38% accuracy and 62% takedown defense. Kyoji Horiguchi brings an extensive professional resume with 34 victories including 20 knockouts/submissions, boasting former championships in Bellator, Rizin (two-time bantamweight champion, one-time flyweight champion), and status as a 2017 Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix Champion. However, Horiguchi has not competed in the UFC since 2016 and will be making his return after nearly a decade competing at higher weight classes in other organizations. His striking output of 3.60 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy and striking defense of 62% remain competitive, but his takedown defense of only 55% presents vulnerability against Ulanbekov's wrestling approach.
This is a first-time matchup between the two fighters. No direct historical data exists, though stylistic analysis suggests Ulanbekov's wrestling advantage presents significant challenges for Horiguchi, whose primary strength lies in striking rather than grappling defense. Notably, of Horiguchi's five career losses, only one occurred at flyweight (to Demetrius Johnson for the UFC title at age 24), indicating his expertise at higher weight classes.
No current injuries reported for either fighter. Both athletes are cleared to compete.
Horiguchi's nine-year absence from the UFC represents a significant variable. While he has remained active in Bellator and Rizin, the UFC's updated competition level, rule variations, and the younger generation of fighters present adjustment challenges. Ulanbekov competes regularly in the UFC and demonstrates comfort with the current competitive landscape. The event takes place in Qatar, a neutral venue for both international competitors.
Ulanbekov seeks to extend his winning streak and solidify his position in the flyweight rankings. Horiguchi faces immense motivation in his UFC return, aiming to prove his legitimacy against current UFC competition and potentially earn a title shot given his championship pedigree. The narrative of an international legend's return provides significant psychological motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Ulanbekov -192 / Horiguchi +160
Tagir Ulanbekov Win
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Ulanbekov -3.5 (120) / Horiguchi +3.5 (-160)
Ulanbekov -3.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-298) / Under 2.5 (220)
Under 2.5 Rounds
★★★☆☆ 64%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Tagir Ulanbekov 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 140%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 140% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tagir Ulanbekov is favored to win via submission or decision, leveraging his superior wrestling, takedown offense (2.94 per 15 minutes vs. 2.00), takedown accuracy (38% vs. 44%), takedown defense (62% vs. 55%), and submission attempt rate (1.6 per 15 minutes vs. 0.7 per 15 minutes). While Horiguchi possesses superior striking output (3.60 vs. 3.37 significant strikes per minute) and striking defense (62%), Ulanbekov's four-consecutive UFC victories and consistent grappling dominance over recent opponents provide a clear path to victory through control. Horiguchi's primary vulnerability—weak takedown defense at 55%—directly matches Ulanbekov's primary strength. However, Horiguchi's experience, championship pedigree, and striking capabilities mean this is not a guaranteed outcome, particularly if the fight remains standing.
Predicted Score: Tagir Ulanbekov defeats Kyoji Horiguchi by Submission (Round 2, 3:45) or Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28). Most probable outcome: Ulanbekov via grappling control and submission in Round 2.
Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria face off in a bantamweight bout at UFC Qatar. Both fighters are 5'7" tall and weigh 135 lbs, with similar reach. Almakhan holds a 12-2 record known for explosive but low-volume KO striking, while Topuria has a 6-1 record with a more technical approach, showing higher significant strikes per minute and grappling efficiency. The fight is expected to feature early aggressive exchanges from Almakhan with Topuria relying on range control and grappling discipline.
Key Factors to Consider
Almakhan has a record of 12-2, favoring quick knockouts with an average fight time of about 8 minutes; he lands fewer significant strikes per minute (0.68) compared to Topuria who lands 2.73 and maintains longer fights averaging 15 minutes. Topuria has superior takedown success (50%) and defense (85%) compared to Almakhan's lower grappling stats.
This is the first meeting between Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria, so no direct historical head-to-head data is available.
No reported injuries for either fighter affecting this bout.
The fight is held at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, a neutral site likely favoring neither fighter. Event timing and environment have no specific noted impact.
Almakhan needs an early knockout or brawl sequence to neutralize Topuria's technical edge. Topuria can rely on pace control and grappling to wear down Almakhan over rounds, leveraging his superior conditioning and fight IQ.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Aleksandre Topuria -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 -3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aleksandre Topuria is favored to win by decision or late finish due to his striking volume, grappling dominance, and endurance advantages. Almakhan's best chance lies in an early knockout within the first 5 minutes before Topuria settles into a rhythm.
Predicted Score: Aleksandre Topuria wins by decision after 3 rounds
The middleweight bout between Ismail Naurdiev and Ryan Loder at UFC Qatar on November 22, 2025, features two fighters with contrasting styles and records. Naurdiev is a more experienced fighter with a 24-8-0 record and an orthodox stance, known for solid striking defense and balanced offense. Loder, standing taller at 6'2" with a southpaw stance and a record of 8-2-0, is a more aggressive striker landing more significant strikes per minute with higher accuracy but lower defensive percentages.
Key Factors to Consider
Naurdiev has a longer MMA career with more fights and experience inside the Octagon, averaging longer fight durations (15:00 minutes) and strong strike defense (64%). Loder is a newer but highly effective competitor with higher striking volume and accuracy (5.76 strikes/min at 71% accuracy), though he allows more significant strikes per minute (2.51) and has less strike defense (50%). Loder's striking rush could challenge Naurdiev's defense.
No prior head-to-head matchups exist between Ismail Naurdiev and Ryan Loder, making this their first encounter.
No publicly reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
The fight takes place at UFC Qatar, a neutral venue with conditions expected to be standard for both fighters. Loder is part of Team Alpha Male, leveraging strong team support and motivation as the Season 32 winner of The Ultimate Fighter. No other external issues reported.
Naurdiev aims to re-establish momentum following mixed recent results, while Loder seeks to capitalize on his rising trajectory and notable striking advantages. Both fighters bring high motivation for a career-defining win in a prime UFC event.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Ismail Naurdiev: -135, Ryan Loder: +114
Ismail Naurdiev to win
★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread
Ismail Naurdiev: -3.5 (110), Ryan Loder: +3.5 (-145)
Ismail Naurdiev to win by more than 3.5 points
★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -120
Over 2.5 rounds (fight goes past halfway point)
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ismail Naurdiev -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 15%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Naurdiev's experience, strong defensive striking, and composure over longer fights versus Loder's higher volume, aggressive striking and reach advantage, the bout is expected to be competitive but likely favors Naurdiev by decision or late finish. Loder's finishing power or pressure could sway an upset, but Naurdiev's consistency is predicted to prevail.
Predicted Score: Ismail Naurdiev wins by decision or late round finish, with fight lasting over 2.5 rounds
Nurullo Aliev, the undefeated Tajik Eagle with a perfect 10-0 record (2-0 in UFC), faces England/Ireland's Shaqueme 'Shem' Rock in his UFC debut. This lightweight bout features a significant contrast in experience levels, with Aliev representing the established UFC prospect and Rock making his long-awaited promotional debut after an impressive 12-1-1 record outside the octagon. The matchup showcases two distinct fighting styles, with Aliev known for a more measured, control-oriented approach, while Rock projects an aggressive finishing mentality.
Key Factors to Consider
Nurullo Aliev maintains an unblemished 10-0 professional record with notable wins over Joe Solecki, Josh Wick, and Rafael Alves. His UFC record stands at 2-0, establishing him as a legitimate prospect in the lightweight division. Shem Rock's 12-1-1 record demonstrates consistent success outside the UFC, with eight submissions among his victories and an elite-level grappling foundation. Rock's only loss and draw suggest occasional inconsistency, while Aliev's perfection indicates technical mastery and competitive discipline.
This is the first meeting between these fighters. No direct historical data exists. However, stylistically, Aliev's wrestling-heavy, control-based approach directly contrasts with Rock's aggressive submission finisher mentality. Rock has publicly criticized Aliev's 'boring' defensive style, suggesting he sees opportunities to exploit through aggressive striking and grappling exchanges rather than accepting positional control.
No injury information available in provided sources. Both fighters appear healthy for competition.
Rock's UFC debut adds psychological complexity—both motivation to prove himself and potential inexperience against elite competition. Aliev benefits from established UFC experience and familiarity with high-level opponents. The Qatar venue is neutral territory for both fighters. Rock's public trash-talk may indicate psychological confidence but could also suggest concern about stylistic matchups.
Shem Rock enters his UFC debut with significant motivation to make an immediate impact and validate his professional record against elite competition. Nurullo Aliev seeks to extend his undefeated streak and continue climbing the lightweight rankings. Rock's aggressive rhetoric ('take his chin off,' 'snipe him') indicates high psychological investment in this performance.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Aliev: -290 | Rock: +235
Nurullo Aliev
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Aliev -3.5 (-120) | Rock +3.5 (-110)
Aliev -3.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-188) | Under 2.5 (145)
Under 2.5
★★★★☆ 71%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Nurullo Aliev 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 72%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nurullo Aliev is favored to win this matchup, with the -290 moneyline reflecting his perfect record, UFC experience, and proven wrestling credentials. However, the 235 odds for Shem Rock suggest legitimate upset potential given his submission expertise and aggressive style. The stylistic matchup favors Aliev's control wrestling against Rock's submission attempts, but Rock's elite grappling background and finishing mentality present meaningful threats. Expect a competitive bout with Aliev winning via decision or control wrestling.
Predicted Score: Nurullo Aliev wins via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28). Expected fight duration: Full 3 rounds with dominant wrestling control from Aliev, limited finishing opportunities for Rock despite submission attempts.
This welterweight bout features Nicolas Dalby, an experienced Danish veteran with 23 professional wins, facing Saygid Izagakhmaev, a highly-touted Russian prospect making his UFC debut. Dalby brings 7 UFC fights and established name recognition, while Izagakhmaev arrives as an undefeated newcomer with an impressive 22-2 record from other promotions. The matchmaking appears designed to test Izagakhmaev's mettle against established UFC competition, with oddsmakers heavily favoring the debutant.
Key Factors to Consider
Nicolas Dalby (23-6-1, 2 NC; UFC 7-5-1, 1 NC) has experienced mixed results in the UFC, most recently suffering a stoppage loss to Randy Brown via KO in Round 2 at UFC Kansas City (April 2025). His notable wins include Muslim Salikhov, Gabriel Bonfim, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Dalby has earned 2x Fight of the Night bonuses, indicating competitive, exciting performances. Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-2) enters with an impressive record featuring notable victories over James Nakashima, Shinya Aoki, and Nikolay Aleksakhin. His only losses come outside the UFC, suggesting he has faced elite competition and overcame adversity.
No previous meetings exist between these fighters. This represents Izagakhmaev's UFC debut, making direct statistical comparison difficult. However, Izagakhmaev's record against higher-level opposition (Nakashima, Aoki) suggests he has faced comparable or superior competition to Dalby's recent opponents.
No injury information is available from the provided search results. Both fighters appear to be healthy and scheduled to compete.
Izagakhmaev competes as a newcomer to the UFC, which typically involves adjustment challenges including cage familiarity, opponent scouting quality, and promotion-specific rule variations. However, his pedigree and previous high-level competition suggest he is well-prepared. Dalby fights in front of his loss, potentially creating additional motivation or psychological factors. The fight is scheduled as a preliminary bout on the UFC Qatar card headlined by Tsarukyan vs. Hooker.
Dalby seeks redemption after his recent knockout loss and fights to maintain his UFC roster spot. Izagakhmaev enters with perfect UFC ambitions intact and an opportunity to make an immediate statement against an established opponent. For Dalby, this represents a crucial fight to demonstrate he remains competitive; for Izagakhmaev, this is a platform to validate his elite prospect status and earn respect in the UFC's welterweight division.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dalby +270 | Izagakhmaev -340
Saygid Izagakhmaev
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Dalby +3.5 (125) | Izagakhmaev -3.5 (-170)
Izagakhmaev -3.5
★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-145) | Under 2.5 (114)
Under 2.5 Rounds
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Saygid Izagakhmaev -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 27%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saygid Izagakhmaev is predicted to win this matchup via decision or submission. His undefeated record, impressive victories against elite competition (Aoki, Nakashima), and superior striking/grappling combination should prove too much for a declining Nicolas Dalby. While Dalby's experience provides value, his recent knockout loss and inconsistent UFC results position him as the vulnerable underdog. Izagakhmaev's technical superiority and youth advantage are decisive factors.
Predicted Score: Saygid Izagakhmaev wins via Submission (Round 2, 3:45) or Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Location: Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, Al Rayyan, Qatar
Game Overview
Marek Bujło faces Denzel Freeman in a heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 265 in Doha, Qatar. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, with Bujło entering with a perfect 6-0 record, all finishes, and Freeman at 6-1, coming off a loss in his last fight. The match is expected to be a clash of styles, with Bujło known for his striking and knockout power, while Freeman is a former LFA heavyweight champion with strong wrestling and grappling credentials.
Key Factors to Consider
Marek Bujło has finished all six of his professional fights, showcasing explosive striking and a high knockout rate. His opponents have been regional-level, but his finishing ability is notable. Denzel Freeman, while also finishing most of his wins, suffered a loss in his last bout, indicating vulnerability. Freeman's wrestling and grappling are considered superior, but his striking defense is less proven.
No previous encounters between the two fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct history.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event.
The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, marking the UFC's debut in the country. The environment may be unfamiliar for both fighters, but neither has a clear advantage in terms of travel or acclimatization.
Both fighters are highly motivated for their UFC debuts. Bujło aims to make a statement as an undefeated prospect, while Freeman seeks to rebound from his recent loss and establish himself in the UFC.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Denzel Freeman: -205, Marek Bujło: 170
Marek Bujło
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Denzel Freeman: -5.5 -160, Marek Bujło: 5.5 120
Marek Bujło +5.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over: 1.5 120, Under: 1.5 -154
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Marek Bujło -98%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 -98%
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Marek Bujło is favored to win by knockout or decision due to his finishing ability and undefeated record. Denzel Freeman's wrestling could pose a challenge, but Bujło's striking and power are expected to prevail. The fight is likely to go the distance or end in a finish for Bujło.
Predicted Score: Marek Bujło wins by knockout or decision in the second or third round.
This lightweight bout features undefeated Nurullo Aliev (10-0, UFC 2-0) against Shaqueme Rock (12-1-1, UFC debut) at UFC Fight Night in Doha, Qatar. Aliev is known for his well-rounded, decision-oriented style, while Rock is a finisher with a strong grappling background. The fight is highly anticipated as Rock makes his UFC debut against a rising prospect.
Key Factors to Consider
Nurullo Aliev has won all 10 of his professional fights, with 8 by decision and 2 by KO/TKO. He has shown consistency and adaptability in the UFC, defeating fighters like Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves. Shaqueme Rock has 12 wins, 9 by submission, 2 by KO/TKO, and 1 by decision, with only 1 loss and 1 draw. His record indicates a high finishing rate and elite grappling skills.
Nurullo Aliev and Shaqueme Rock have no prior head-to-head history. This will be their first encounter.
No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to this bout.
The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, which may provide a neutral environment for both fighters. The event is part of a major UFC Fight Night, increasing the stakes and exposure for both competitors.
Aliev is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and continue his rise in the lightweight division. Rock is eager to make a statement in his UFC debut and prove himself against a top prospect.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Nurullo Aliev: -305, Shaqueme Rock: 235
Shaqueme Rock
Not available
Spread
Nurullo Aliev: -1.5, Shaqueme Rock: 1.5
Shaqueme Rock -1.5
Not available
Over/under
over: 2.5, under: 2.5
over 2.5
Not available
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Shaqueme Rock 152%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Shaqueme Rock at 152% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Shaqueme Rock is favored to win due to his high finishing rate and elite grappling skills. However, Nurullo Aliev's undefeated record and decision-oriented style make him a tough opponent. The fight is likely to be competitive, with Rock having a slight edge.
Predicted Score: Shaqueme Rock wins by submission in the second round
The fight between Alexander Poppeck and David Hošek is set within the Oktagon 80 event in Munich. Poppeck, a German fighter with a background starting in Thai boxing, is facing Hošek, a Czech fighter known for his devastating punches and experience in OKTAGON, KSW, and bare-knuckle boxing. Hošek returns after a 3.5-year hiatus with a solid record of 13-7-1, and 8 KOs highlighting power striking, while Poppeck is favored heavily in betting odds.
Key Factors to Consider
Poppeck is the strong favorite with a moneyline of -1400, indicating bookmakers place high confidence in his victory based on recent form and overall skill set. Hošek has a respectable record with a mix of KOs and submissions but is given underdog status at +800.
There is no explicit historical head-to-head data available between Poppeck and Hošek, suggesting this may be their first encounter in MMA competition.
No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout, implying both are expected to compete at full strength.
The fight takes place in Munich, Germany, Poppeck's home region, which could provide psychological and crowd support advantages. Hošek's longer absence (3.5 years return) might influence ring rust but also renewed motivation.
Hošek may be highly motivated to prove himself after a lengthy hiatus, while Poppeck likely seeks to capitalize on home advantage and maintain or extend a winning momentum.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Alexander Poppeck -7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexander Poppeck at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alexander Poppeck is predicted to win by decision or late-round strike due to his favored odds and home advantage, with David Hošek presenting a credible threat through striking power and resilience.
Predicted Score: Alexander Poppeck wins by unanimous decision or TKO in Round 3
This is a featherweight bout between Finnish prospect Eemil Kurhela and Eugen Black-Dell at OKTAGON 80. Kurhela enters as the favored fighter based on his impressive finishing rate and recent record, while Black-Dell represents a competitive challenger. The match showcases contrasting fighting styles with Kurhela's demonstrated knockout power against Black-Dell's submission capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
Eemil Kurhela is a Finnish MMA prospect with an impressive 7-3 professional record, featuring 6 finishes (5 in round 1), demonstrating exceptional striking power and fight-ending ability. His recent performance includes a loss to Marco Novak on December 29, 2024, representing his last outing. Eugen Black-Dell maintains a 9-8 professional record with a more mixed finishing profile, holding an edge in decision victories.
No previous head-to-head history exists between these fighters, making this their first professional matchup. Both fighters operate at similar competitive levels within the OKTAGON promotion, with comparable experience but different stylistic approaches.
No injury information available from current sources.
Kurhela competes under his home club 03 Fight Team, providing potential home-country familiarity advantage. Both fighters are ranked relatively close in the featherweight division (Kurhela ranked higher), indicating competitive parity in terms of promotion respect.
Kurhela appears motivated to bounce back from his December 2024 loss to Marco Novak, seeking to return to his finishing form. Black-Dell enters with momentum from his recent performance streak (W-W-W-L-W), looking to establish himself against a rising prospect.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Eemil Kurhela -155 | Eugen Black-Dell +115
Eemil Kurhela Victory
★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under
Based on finishing rates: Over 1.5 rounds favored
Fight concludes before round 3 (under 2.5 rounds)
★★★☆☆ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Eemil Kurhela 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Eemil Kurhela at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Eemil Kurhela is predicted to secure victory via finish (knockout or submission) in the second or third round. His superior finishing rate (5 round-1 finishes out of 7 wins) and current form suggest he will overcome Black-Dell's defensive wrestling. However, Black-Dell's submission threat and technical grappling cannot be dismissed.
Predicted Score: Eemil Kurhela def. Eugen Black-Dell via TKO (Round 2, 3:15) – The Finnish prospect's superior finishing ability and recent confidence overcome Black-Dell's grappling defense, resulting in a stoppage victory that reinforces Kurhela's knockout prowess.
