Sebastien Di Franco vs. Mark Ewen Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Sebastien Di Franco vs Mark Ewen – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: PFL Europe Week 3 Event, Nantes, France

Game Overview

Sebastien Di Franco faces Mark Ewen in the PFL Europe 3 MMA bout. Mark Ewen enters as the strong favorite with moneyline odds around -310 to -345, indicating his superior recent form and experience. Sebastien Di Franco is the underdog at +230 to +240 odds but remains a dangerous competitor. The fight is expected to be competitive but with Ewen favored due to consistency and fight style advantages.

Key Factors to Consider

Mark Ewen has shown solid recent form with consistent victories in the PFL circuit, while Sebastien Di Franco has had mixed results recently, affecting confidence and momentum.
No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between the fighters, so styles and recent performances weigh more heavily.
No current injury reports affecting either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both are likely at full strength.
Event on home soil for PFL Europe, with both fighters accustomed to competing internationally; Mark Ewen's experience fighting in larger promotions likely psychologically advantageous.
Mark Ewen has strong motivation to solidify his standing in PFL rankings due to his winning streak; Di Franco is motivated to upset the favorite but lacks recent signature wins.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mark Ewen: -310, Sebastien Di Franco: +240	Mark Ewen	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Mark Ewen -1.5 rounds: -140, Sebastien Di Franco +1.5 rounds: +110	Mark Ewen -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mark Ewen 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mark Ewen at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mark Ewen to win via decision

Predicted Score: Mark Ewen wins by decision (3-0 rounds)

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Dean Garnett vs. Jan Cieplowski Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Dean Garnett vs Jan Cieplowski – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: PFL Europe 3, Nantes

Game Overview

This PFL Europe 3 matchup features Jan Cieplowski favored to defeat Dean Garnett with strong odds reflecting his recent form and skill advantage. Garnett enters as the underdog with respectable but lesser betting support.

Key Factors to Consider

Jan Cieplowski has a solid recent record with multiple wins in the PFL and Armia Fight Night promotions, consistently favored by bookmakers (odds around -260 to -350). Dean Garnett shows competitive fight readiness but with less consistent notable victories and thus longer odds (+185 to +225).
No direct recorded head-to-head bouts, so analysis relies on form, styles, and career progression.
No public injury reports on either fighter prior to the bout, indicating both are likely at full fitness.
The fight location in Nantes, France (PFL Europe 3 event) favors neither fighter geographically as both have fought internationally. No distractions or motivation impairments reported.
Both fighters are motivated to secure wins in a high-profile PFL Europe event, with Cieplowski slightly favored due to recent upward trajectory and reputation in European MMA.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jan Cieplowski -280, Dean Garnett +205	Jan Cieplowski	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Jan Cieplowski -1.5 rounds -140, Dean Garnett +1.5 rounds +110	Jan Cieplowski -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Under 2.5 rounds -120, Over 2.5 rounds +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jan Cieplowski to win on the moneyline, covering the spread and the fight going under the projected total rounds.

Predicted Score: Jan Cieplowski wins via submission or TKO in Round 2

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Darragh Kelly vs. Bakhtiyar Abdulaev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: PFL Europe 3, Nantes, France

Game Overview

Darragh Kelly, a heavily favored fighter with dominant recent performances in PFL Europe, goes up against underdog Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, who has shown potential but less consistent results at this level.

Key Factors to Consider

Darragh Kelly has demonstrated strong finishing skills and control in his last three fights, winning decisively without significant damage. Abdulaev has mixed recent form, with some solid wins but also questionable defense and endurance.
No previous meeting between Kelly and Abdulaev, so no direct comparison exists; analysis relies on stylistic matchups and recent performance trends.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the contest, indicating both are likely at peak physical condition.
The fight takes place on European soil in PFL Europe 3, with Kelly possibly having a slight home continent advantage and stronger fan support.
Kelly appears highly motivated to advance his standing in the PFL Europe lightweight division, whereas Abdulaev seems motivated but faces higher pressure as the clear underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kelly -650, Abdulaev +440	Kelly	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Kelly -1.5 rounds -300, Abdulaev +1.5 rounds +220	Kelly -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -110, Under 2.5 rounds -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Darragh Kelly at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Darragh Kelly to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Kelly wins by TKO in round 2

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Maria Guedez Jr vs. Kiya O'Sullivan Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Maria Guedez Jr vs Kiya O'Sullivan – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: Le Zénith, Nantes, France

Game Overview

This women's strawweight bout at PFL Europe 3 features two debut fighters, Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan, with no prior professional MMA records available. Both are untested in professional competition, making the match a test of raw talent and preparation.

Key Factors to Consider

No professional fight records or recent fighter form are available for either competitor, limiting statistical performance analysis.
No prior head-to-head bouts or related historical data exist between the two fighters.
No injury reports or physical setbacks have been disclosed for either fighter leading up to the bout.
The fight takes place in Nantes, France, providing a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters presumably have equal acclimatization conditions.
Both debutants likely have high motivation to establish themselves in the PFL Europe competitive framework and secure future opportunities.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kiya O'Sullivan: -200, Maria Guedez Jr: +160	Kiya O'Sullivan	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5: -110, Maria Guedez Jr +1.5: -110	Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kiya O'Sullivan -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kiya O'Sullivan at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Kiya O'Sullivan to win

Predicted Score: Kiya O'Sullivan wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds

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Claudio Pacella vs. Aleksandr Chizov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: Nantes, France

Game Overview

Aleksandr Chizov (-164) faces Claudio Pacella (+134) in a PFL Europe 3 lightweight bout, where Chizov opens as favorite due to more consistent recent performances and favorable odds movement.

Key Factors to Consider

Chizov has shown stronger recent form with multiple wins in PFL and professional bouts, whereas Pacella has a mixed record and fewer high-profile wins.
No recorded previous encounter between Claudio Pacella and Aleksandr Chizov, making direct matchup data unavailable.
No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the matchup.
Fight takes place in Nantes, France, a neutral venue for both, minimizing home advantage. Both fighters are competing in PFL Europe, indicating similar preparation levels.
Chizov's recent upward career trajectory in PFL Europe likely increases his motivation and confidence; Pacella has incentives but less momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chizov -164 / Pacella +134	Aleksandr Chizov	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Chizov -1.5 (+130), Pacella +1.5 (-150)	Aleksandr Chizov -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds (-110), Under 2.5 rounds (-110)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aleksandr Chizov -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aleksandr Chizov at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aleksandr Chizov to win by straight victory on the moneyline, with a decision inside the distance expected under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Aleksandr Chizov wins by decision or finish within 2 rounds

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Vincent del Guerra vs. Sofiane Aïssaoui Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, Nantes, France

Game Overview

This middleweight MMA matchup pits veteran Vincent del Guerra (35, 32-22-1 record) against technically skilled Sofiane Aïssaoui (34, 11-6-0). Del Guerra has a greater volume of fights and experience but a negative win/loss ratio, while Aïssaoui shows a more balanced record and slightly longer reach.

Key Factors to Consider

Del Guerra has more fights but has lost significantly more; he tends to win by KO/TKO and submissions evenly. Aïssaoui has fewer fights but maintains a positive record with a strong submission game and decent knockout power. Recent form suggests both fighters remain active but no clear winning streak favors either.
No documented direct prior matchups or results exist between del Guerra and Aïssaoui.
No publicly available reports of injuries or weight-cutting issues for either fighter; both made weight successfully at the latest weigh-ins.
The bout takes place at PFL Europe 3 in Nantes, France, effectively a home advantage for French fighter del Guerra. The venue and event are high profile with live broadcast.
Del Guerra likely motivated to prove himself due to a losing record and home crowd. Aïssaoui, with a positive record and skill set, is motivated to establish dominance and capitalize on underdog status given the odds.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -390, away: +310	Vincent del Guerra	★★★★☆ 71%
Spread	home_spread_minus_1.5: -120, away_spread_plus_1.5: -110	Vincent del Guerra -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -108, under_2.5_rounds: -112	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vincent del Guerra -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vincent del Guerra at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vincent del Guerra to win by moneyline given experience, home advantage, and current bookmaker support.

Predicted Score: Vincent del Guerra wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

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Connor Hughes vs. Gino van Steenis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-26
Time: 4:00 PM UTC
Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, France

Game Overview

The lightweight bout at PFL Europe 3 features England's Connor Hughes (11-2) against Spain's Gino van Steenis (6-1). Hughes is known for his hard-hitting KO power and riding momentum from a recent devastating KO victory. Van Steenis presents a well-rounded skillset and is considered a tough opponent aiming to upset Hughes.

Key Factors to Consider

Connor Hughes has demonstrated significant striking power with recent KO wins, showing momentum and confidence. Gino van Steenis has an excellent record with only one loss and a balanced fighting style, but less recent knockout hype.
No recorded previous matchups between Hughes and van Steenis, making this a fresh contest with no direct past outcomes.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this fight, both are expected to compete at full health.
Fight takes place in France, neutral ground likely minimizing home advantage. Hughes fights with confidence from a recent knockout while van Steenis shows tactical composure as a technical striker.
Both fighters are motivated to advance in the PFL Europe lightweight tournament and secure momentum for the $100,000 purse and championship, but Hughes appears slightly more motivated based on recent striking success and crowd momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Connor Hughes: -290, Gino van Steenis: 225	Connor Hughes	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Connor Hughes -1.5: -185, Gino van Steenis +1.5: 155	Connor Hughes -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds: -140, Under 1.5 Rounds: 110	Under 1.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Connor Hughes -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Connor Hughes at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Connor Hughes to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Connor Hughes wins by 2nd round KO

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Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Dani Barbir Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-24
Time: 1:55 AM UTC
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

The main event at Dana White’s Contender Series Season 9 Week 7 features undefeated Croatian Dani Barbir (7-0) taking on Lithuanian Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1). Both middleweights are known for striking with finishing capabilities. Barbir has proven championship pedigree regionally but withdrew from a recent fight due to injury, raising minor concerns. Kondratavicius, meanwhile, is on a two-fight win streak and boasts a kickboxing background, giving him an edge in striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three five-minute rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

Barbir is undefeated at 7-0 with a strong regional championship background, but has a recent withdrawal due to injury. Kondratavicius has a 7-1 record with four KOs and recently won two straight fights, including a quick stoppage in March 2025, highlighting his finishing ability and experience against durable opponents.
No prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
Barbir withdrew from a May 2025 bout against Piotr Strus due to injury, causing some question marks about his current physical state. Kondratavicius has no disclosed recent injuries and appears fight-ready.
The bout takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral site but a high-pressure environment with a UFC contract on the line, adding motivation. Barbir fights near home in Croatia regionally but is facing a distinctly higher level here.
Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract. Barbir tries to maintain his perfect record and capitalize on his championship pedigree, while Kondratavicius aims to spoil the undefeated run and build his resume with a high-profile KO/TKO win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: +113	Mantas Kondratavicius	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: +250, Dani Barbir +1.5: -300	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +157, Under 1.5 rounds: -180	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dani Barbir 11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins via KO/TKO Round 1-2

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Brahyan Zurcher vs. Murtazali Magomedov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Brahyan Zurcher vs Murtazali Magomedov – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-24
Time: 1:30 AM UTC
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Brahyan Zurcher and Murtazali Magomedov are two undefeated featherweight prospects meeting on Dana White's Contender Series. Both are 9-0 professionally, but bring contrasting skill sets: Zurcher is a technically polished striker with relentless pace, while Magomedov is a taller, aggressive grappler with strong submission finishing ability. The matchup features a clash between Zurcher's pressure and durability versus Magomedov's early submission threat and control.

Key Factors to Consider

Both fighters are undefeated; Zurcher has notable success in PFL with powerful striking and good grind-down skills. Magomedov holds a regional featherweight championship, demonstrating finishing ability especially via submissions and strikes inside the first two rounds.
No previous head-to-head matchup. Both fighters are undefeated, making this a high-stakes risk for both.
No reported recent injuries for either fighter. Zurcher had some canceled fights last year but no injuries mentioned. Both appear physically ready.
Fight held at UFC Apex with a live ESPN+ stream in the US and UFC Fight Pass internationally. The platform and exposure increase stakes for both.
Both fighters seek to secure UFC contracts and maintain unbeaten records. Magomedov may lean on his finishing skills early; Zurcher motivated to upset a submission specialist and prove UFC readiness.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brahyan Zurcher: -140, Murtazali Magomedov: 120	Murtazali Magomedov	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Magomedov -1.5 rounds: -110, Zurcher +1.5 rounds: -110	Magomedov -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -185, Under 1.5 rounds: 161	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Murtazali Magomedov 17%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 83%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline pick for Murtazali Magomedov to win via early submission or TKO due to his finishing prowess and height/pace advantage. Spread pick favors Magomedov by -1.5 rounds given the likelihood of a finish inside the distance. Over/Under pick is Under 1.5 rounds because both have high finish rates and this fight is expected to end before or during the second round.

Predicted Score: Magomedov wins via submission or TKO Round 2

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Sofia Montenegro vs. Jeisla Chaves Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Sofia Montenegro vs Jeisla Chaves – Prediction

Match Details

Date: 2025-09-24
Time: 1:05 AM UTC
Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Flyweight Division

Game Overview

Flyweight matchup between Sofia Montenegro (6-1) and Jeisla Chaves (5-0) on Dana White's Contender Series. Montenegro is slightly more experienced and tested against better opposition, while Chaves is undefeated but with less proven competition.

Key Factors to Consider

Montenegro has a record of 6-1 with wins by KO/TKO, submission, and decision; Chaves is 5-0 but against unproven opponents with no MMA wins, showing solid striking but unproven ground skills.
No prior encounters between the two fighters.
No publicly reported injuries for either fighter before the contest.
Montenegro trains at the UFC Performance Institute, suggesting better access to elite training resources; Chaves has a Muay Thai base but limited MMA experience.
Both are motivated to secure a UFC contract; Montenegro aims to leverage her broader skill set and experience to make a statement, while Chaves looks for a breakout performance despite less tested opposition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sofia Montenegro: -188, Jeisla Chaves: +163	Sofia Montenegro	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Sofia Montenegro -1.5: -140, Jeisla Chaves +1.5: +120	Sofia Montenegro -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -145, Under 2.5: +125	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sofia Montenegro -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sofia Montenegro to win by decision

Predicted Score: Sofia Montenegro wins by decision after 3 rounds

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Sebastien Di Franco vs. Mark Ewen Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Sebastien Di Franco vs Mark Ewen – Prediction

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Dean Garnett vs. Jan Cieplowski Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Dean Garnett vs Jan Cieplowski – Prediction

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Darragh Kelly vs. Bakhtiyar Abdulaev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev – Prediction

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Maria Guedez Jr vs. Kiya O'Sullivan Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Claudio Pacella vs. Aleksandr Chizov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

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Vincent del Guerra vs. Sofiane Aïssaoui Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui – Prediction

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Connor Hughes vs. Gino van Steenis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis – Prediction

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Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Dani Barbir Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Brahyan Zurcher vs. Murtazali Magomedov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Sofia Montenegro vs. Jeisla Chaves Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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