Match Analysis: Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-14
- Time: 4:45 AM UTC
- Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA, USA
Game Overview
This is a pivotal welterweight main event at UFC Fight Night, featuring former champion Kamaru Usman facing rising contender Joaquin Buckley. The odds have shifted dramatically favoring Buckley, who is seen as the fresher, more dynamic fighter, while Usman is viewed as the experienced veteran with wrestling pedigree but potential decline due to age and inactivity.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buckley has been on a hot streak with multiple recent knockout victories, demonstrating improved striking and athleticism. Usman, while once dominant, has shown signs of slowing down, especially in his last outings.
- First professional MMA meeting. No previous head-to-head matchups.
- No major injuries reported for either fighter during fight week. Usman, at 37, has more wear and tear, while Buckley, in his physical prime, is considered less likely to be hindered by injuries.
- Event is in Atlanta, giving no significant home advantage to either fighter. Both have trained intensely, but Usman’s long layoff and Buckley’s momentum are notable.
- Buckley is highly motivated to break into the title picture, while Usman seeks to remain relevant in the division and prove he still belongs at the top.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buckley: -278, Usman: 225 | Buckley win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Buckley -5.5: -140, Usman +5.5: 100 | Buckley covers spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 4.5: -115, Under 4.5: -115 | Over 4.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joaquin Buckley 124% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 4.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Joaquin Buckley at 124% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 55.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Buckley enters as the favorite for good reason—his recent form, power, and athleticism make him a threat. Usman’s wrestling and experience could grind out a decision, but the betting markets and analysts favor Buckley for a KO/TKO or a convincing decision. The edge is with Buckley given the odds and momentum.
Predicted Score: Buckley by KO/TKO (Round 2 or 3) or unanimous decision. Most likely: Buckley def. Usman, stoppage in later rounds or decision.