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Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 322 – Early Prelims, Featherweight Division

Game Overview

Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal face off in a featherweight bout where Sabatini enters as a slight favorite due to his superior submission skills and defensive striking. Mariscal's aggressive striking volume contrasts with Sabatini's precision and grappling expertise.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sabatini holds a 20-5 record with a balanced style leveraging submissions and solid striking defense; Mariscal stands at 18-6-0 (1 NC), known for high volume striking but lower finishing rate.
  • No known previous meetings; both fighters bring contrasting styles making match-up analysis hypothetical but favoring Sabatini's grappling control.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • Fight scheduled for UFC 322 early prelims with no significant environmental factors reported; fighters have comparable reach and size.
  • Sabatini likely motivated to capitalize on experience and maintain UFC standing; Mariscal seeking to prove striking dominance and improve consistency.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Pat Sabatini: -130, Chepe Mariscal: +110 Pat Sabatini β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 72%
Spread Pat Sabatini -3.5: +145, Chepe Mariscal +3.5: -200 Pat Sabatini -3.5 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -200, Under 2.5 rounds: +154 Over 2.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Pat Sabatini 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 2%

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Pat Sabatini at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Pat Sabatini to win via submission or decision

Predicted Score: Pat Sabatini wins by Submission Round 3


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Tracy Cortez vs. Erin Blanchfield Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Tracy Cortez vs Erin Blanchfield – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Game Overview

Erin Blanchfield, the -258 favorite, is a dynamic striker with higher significant strikes landed per minute and strong defensive takedown skills, while Tracy Cortez, the +210 underdog, boasts better takedown accuracy and higher striking accuracy. Both fighters have solid records (13-2 for Blanchfield, 12-2 for Cortez) and comparable physical stats, making this a competitive flyweight bout.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Blanchfield has a slightly faster average fight pace and more significant strikes landed per minute (5.24 vs 3.79), but Cortez has better takedown success (47% vs 31%) and striking accuracy (49% vs 44%), suggesting a balanced contest with contrasting styles.
  • No prior head-to-head fights between Blanchfield and Cortez, so outcome depends on current form and style matchup advantages.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating they should perform at peak levels.
  • Fight takes place at Madison Square Garden with both fighters experienced in high-profile events, minimal travel concerns, and no external disruptions indicated.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to enhance their standing in the flyweight division, with Blanchfield aiming to reinforce her favorite status and Cortez seeking an upset victory to climb rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Erin Blanchfield: -258, Tracy Cortez: +210 Erin Blanchfield β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 70%
Spread Erin Blanchfield -3.5: +120, Tracy Cortez +3.5: -165 Tracy Cortez +3.5 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 65%
Over/under Over 2.5: -445, Under 2.5: +310 Under 2.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tracy Cortez -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 199%

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 199% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Erin Blanchfield to win by decision

Predicted Score: Erin Blanchfield wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)


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Gerald Meerschaert vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 322, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

This middleweight bout features Gerald Meerschaert, a seasoned veteran known for his submission skills, against Kyle Daukaus, a younger and highly efficient southpaw grappler with high takedown and submission averages.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Kyle Daukaus holds a 16-4-0 record with recent wins and better striking accuracy (53% vs. Meerschaert's 45%). Meerschaert has a larger total record (37-20-0) but appears less competitive in recent outings, including a loss signifying decline.
  • They have no direct previous matchups.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
  • Fight will take place on UFC 322 prelims. The younger fighter Daukaus may have better conditioning and recovery. No notable external disruptions.
  • Kyle Daukaus is entering prime years at age 32 and looks motivated to ascend rankings. Meerschaert at 37 may be motivated but shows signs of career decline.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline gerald_meerschaert: 330, kyle_daukaus: -425 Kyle Daukaus β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 78%
Spread gerald_meerschaert_+7.5: 115, kyle_daukaus_-7.5: -155 Kyle Daukaus -7.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 70%
Over/under over_1.5: -175, under_1.5: 135 Under 1.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Kyle Daukaus -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 69%

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 69% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kyle Daukaus to win by submission with a fight under 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Kyle Daukaus wins via submission at 1:30 of round 2


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Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 15, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Fight Night event

Game Overview

Beneil Dariush (+158) faces Benoit Saint-Denis (-183) in a lightweight (155 lbs) matchup. Saint-Denis is favored as the stronger striker with recent momentum, while Dariush returns from a layoff but possesses superior grappling and submission skills. This is a competitive clash between contrasting fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Dariush recently defeated Renato Moicano via unanimous decision at UFC 317 (Jun 2024), showcasing his ability to control fights over five rounds. Saint-Denis appears to be the more active competitor with recent fight activity and striking prowess. Dariush's extended layoff between fights raises questions about ring rust and timing.
  • No previous head-to-head record exists between these fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct historical data to reference.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter at this time. Both appear healthy and cleared to compete.
  • The three-round format (typical for non-championship UFC bouts) favors aggressive, high-output strikers. Saint-Denis' striking advantages become more pronounced in shorter fights. Dariush's grappling and submission game may not have sufficient rounds to fully implement his strategy.
  • Both fighters are competing at elite lightweight level with career trajectory implications. Saint-Denis carries favoritism and momentum. Dariush faces pressure to prove his recent layoff hasn't diminished his competitive edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dariush +158 / Saint-Denis -183 Saint-Denis Win β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%
Spread Dariush +3.5 (105) / Saint-Denis -3.5 (-135) Saint-Denis -3.5 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 62%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds (-165) / Under 1.5 rounds (125) Over 1.5 Rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Draw -100%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 6%

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis wins by decision or striking-based finish. The shorter three-round format, combined with Saint-Denis' striking advantages and recent activity, outweighs Dariush's superior grappling credentials.

Predicted Score: Saint-Denis 29-28 via Unanimous Decision or Saint-Denis TKO Round 2


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Rodolfo Vieira vs. Bo Nickal Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Rodolfo Vieira vs Bo Nickal – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

The middleweight bout between Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 322 features two high-level grapplers and finishers with contrasting styles and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bo Nickal holds a 7-1 record, showing a strong striking accuracy (59%) and solid defense (absorbing 2.11 significant strikes per minute). Rodolfo Vieira is 11-3 with an aggressive style focusing on submissions, landing more significant strikes per minute (3.77) but absorbing more (4.12). Nickal's average fight time is shorter (5:08) versus Vieira's longer bouts (9:43).
  • No prior head-to-head fights between Nickal and Vieira have occurred, making this a stylistic matchup between Nickal's striking and wrestling versus Vieira's jiu-jitsu and submission prowess.
  • No reported injuries to either fighter entering this bout, indicating both are at full strength.
  • The fight takes place in Nickal's home country (USA) in a major venue adding potential crowd support. Vieira is slightly older (36 vs. 29) which may affect endurance and recovery.
  • Nickal is coming off a recent TKO loss but motivated to rebound against a submission specialist, while Vieira seeks validation as a top middleweight grappler stepping into the UFC spotlight.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bo Nickal -205, Rodolfo Vieira +170 Bo Nickal β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 72%
Spread Bo Nickal -3.5 -105, Rodolfo Vieira +3.5 -125 Bo Nickal -3.5 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 -166, Under 2.5 +130 Under 2.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rodolfo Vieira -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 38%

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bo Nickal to win by decision

Predicted Score: Bo Nickal wins by unanimous decision without significant damage


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Jordan Vucenic vs. Torpal Merjoev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Jordan Vucenic vs Torpal Merjoev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 15, 2025
  • Time: 8:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Indigo at The O2, London

Game Overview

Lightweight bout featuring Jordan Vucenic, a former Cage Warriors champion and UFC veteran, returning to London against rising Norwegian prospect Torpal 'Rambo' Merjoev. This is a main card clash at Cage Warriors 196 with significant implications for both fighters' careers.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vucenic holds a 13-4 record with 6 submissions and 5 decision wins, demonstrating well-rounded striking and grappling. Merjoev is an undefeated 6-0 prospect with 2 submissions and 3 decisions, showing rapid development but limited high-level competition. Vucenic's experience advantage is substantialβ€”he has fought at elite levels including the UFC, while Merjoev remains a rising prospect.
  • No previous matchup history. Merjoev views this as a significant step-up opportunity against an established veteran, while Vucenic is reasserting himself at the Cage Warriors level after UFC stint.
  • No injury information available in current data.
  • The bout takes place at The O2 in London, a venue where Vucenic has previously competed with legendary moments. Merjoev is traveling from Norway as a rising prospect seeking a career-defining victory. Vucenic's return to Cage Warriors after UFC experience signals motivation to reclaim prominence.
  • Vucenic is motivated to establish himself back in Cage Warriors after UFC exposure. Merjoev is highly motivated as this represents a breakthrough opportunity against elite-level competition. A Merjoev victory could fast-track title considerations, while Vucenic needs to demonstrate he remains a top-tier threat at this level.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Vucenic -600 | Merjoev +350 Jordan Vucenic β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jordan Vucenic -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Jordan Vucenic at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jordan Vucenic to win via submission or decision. The former UFC fighter's superior experience, proven grappling (6 submissions), and veteran poise overcome Merjoev's undefeated record and youth advantage.

Predicted Score: Vucenic wins via submission (Round 2) or unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)


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Jawany Scott vs. Michelangelo Lupoli Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Jawany Scott vs Michelangelo Lupoli – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 15, 2025
  • Time: 8:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Indigo at The O2, London

Game Overview

Flyweight/Bantamweight bout between Jawany Scott (UK, home fighter) and Michelangelo Lupoli (Italy, guest fighter) at Cage Warriors 196 in London. Scott is favored at -440 moneyline odds, reflecting home advantage and shorter winning streak for Lupoli.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Michelangelo Lupoli is on a short winning streak but fighting as a guest competitor. Jawany Scott competes at home with local advantage. Historical data shows 68% win rate for domestic fighters in this promotion over the past 2 years, suggesting systematic home advantage.
  • No previous matchup history between Scott and Lupoli. First-time meeting creates uncertainty but eliminates predictable patterns.
  • No injury information available in provided data.
  • Home venue advantage significantly favors Scott. Lupoli faces potential judging bias as visiting fighter. Historical promotion data suggests 68% domestic fighter win rate, indicating possible selection of favorable matchups or consistent home advantage effects.
  • Scott fighting at home in London with moral advantage and crowd support. Lupoli has short winning streak providing confidence but faces psychological pressure of away fighting and potential bias concerns.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Scott -440 | Lupoli +270 Jawany Scott β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jawany Scott -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Jawany Scott at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jawany Scott wins via Decision

Predicted Score: Scott wins by Decision (likely unanimous or split decision given competitive bantamweight division)


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Ollie Sarwa vs. Tuomas Gronvall Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Ollie Sarwa vs Tuomas Gronvall – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 15, 2025
  • Time: 8:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Indigo at The O2, London, England

Game Overview

Bantamweight main card matchup at Cage Warriors 196 between Ollie Sarwa and Tuomas Gronvall. Sarwa enters as the betting favorite with -160 moneyline odds, indicating market confidence in his abilities. Gronvall, fighting out of Finland with a 13-9-1 record, is the underdog at +120.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ollie Sarwa is favored by the market with significant odds movement, opening at -400 and moving to -250 closing odds, suggesting strong market confidence and likely recent dominant performance. Tuomas Gronvall carries a 13-9-1 professional record, indicating a fighter with moderate experience but inconsistent results.
  • No previous head-to-head history between these fighters in available data.
  • No injury information available in provided data.
  • Fight takes place in London at a premium venue (The O2), which may provide home advantage considerations. This is a main card fight at a significant Cage Warriors event.
  • Both fighters competing at a major Cage Warriors event with main card placement, suggesting high-profile opportunity for both competitors.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Sarwa -160 / Gronvall +120 Ollie Sarwa β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Draw -100%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Ollie Sarwa to win by decision or submission.

Predicted Score: Unable to determine without more detailed fighter striking, grappling, and submission statistics


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Thomas Paull vs. Marin Vetrila Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Thomas Paull vs Marin Vetrila – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 7:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Cage Warriors (Venue not explicitly listed)

Game Overview

A Lightweight prelim fight between Thomas Paull and Marin Vetrila at Cage Warriors 196 event, with sportsbooks heavily favoring Vetrila.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Marin Vetrila is favored with recent stronger form and more consistent performances in Cage Warriors, showing superior striking and grappling metrics; Thomas Paull appears less experienced with mixed outcomes in recent fights.
  • No recorded previous head-to-head meetings between Thomas Paull and Marin Vetrila.
  • No publicly announced injuries for either fighter at match time.
  • The fight is a prelim lightweight bout in Cage Warriors with no known external disruptions; both fighters motivated to capitalize on career momentum.
  • Marin Vetrila has higher motivation driven by better recent performances and being the betting favorite, while Thomas Paull seeks to make a mark against a strong opponent, possibly increasing risk-taking.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Marin Vetrila: -300, Thomas Paull: +200 Marin Vetrila β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜† 74%
Spread Marin Vetrila -1.5 rounds: -150, Thomas Paull +1.5 rounds: +130 Marin Vetrila -1.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: +120, Under 2.5 rounds: -140 Under 2.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Marin Vetrila -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Marin Vetrila at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Marin Vetrila to win by moneyline with confidence in a moderately low total fight duration (under rounds) due to expected control and experience advantage.

Predicted Score: Marin Vetrila wins by 2nd round stoppage


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Kadeem Perkins vs. Ciaran Brady Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

Match Analysis: Kadeem Perkins vs Ciaran Brady – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 7:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Indigo at the O2, London, England

Game Overview

The bantamweight prelim fight between Kadeem Perkins and Ciaran Brady is set for three rounds as part of Cage Warriors 196. Perkins enters undefeated at 4-0, with a strong submission rate, while Brady is 3-0 with all wins by decision. Brady is favored on the moneyline at -175, while Perkins is a +135 underdog.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Perkins has a perfect record with 75% submission wins, showing grappling dominance. Brady has won all fights by decision and has no submission or KO wins, indicating a more tactical, grinding style.
  • This is their first recorded matchup, so no direct H2H data is available.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight takes place in London, England (home region advantage slightly favoring Brady from Ireland, close proximity). Both fighters motivated by maintaining undefeated records in the Cage Warriors circuit.
  • Both fighters are undefeated and looking to build early momentum; Perkins may have slight mental edge due to finishing capabilities and recent tournament success.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brady -175 / Perkins +135 Brady β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%
Spread Brady -1.5 rounds (implied) at standard -110 Brady -1.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 65%
Over/under Under 2.5 rounds around -165; Over 2.5 rounds around +120 Under 2.5 rounds β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ciaran Brady -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Ciaran Brady at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Ciaran Brady to win by decision; Spread: Brady to win by 3 round decision (i.e., full distance); Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Ciaran Brady wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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