Match Analysis: Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 8:15 PM UTC
• Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada

Game Overview

This is a UFC Bantamweight prelims bout between Canadian debutant Melissa Croden (6-2-0, 0-0 UFC) and Tainara Lisboa (7-3-0, 1-2 UFC), with Croden making her promotional debut in her home country and Lisboa seeking to rebound from a spotty UFC start[2][4]. Lisboa brings more UFC experience and a technically proficient striking base, while Croden is touted for her well-rounded skill set, including grappling and proven finishing ability. The odds are nearly even, underscoring a competitive matchup in a technical, high-paced division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Croden is considered a rising prospect with a strong regional record and finishes in 5 of her 6 wins, though she is untested at the UFC level[2][7]. Lisboa has faced tougher competition, with mixed results: she has UFC experience, but has struggled to consistently prove herself among ranked opponents[4]. The fight will likely hinge on whether Croden can rise to the UFC's pace and pressure, or if Lisboa's technical edge and experience will show through.
• There is no prior head-to-head history between the two fighters.
• No notable injuries reported for either fighter.
• Croden debuts in Canada, which could provide a modest crowd advantage, but Lisboa has been here before and is not known to be negatively impacted by travel. Both are fighting on prelims, so there is no major co-main or main event pressure[2]. The bout is not specifically impacted by regulatory or promotional factors.
• Croden is highly motivated for her UFC debut and eager to prove herself on the big stage, especially fighting in her home country[5][7]. Lisboa needs a win to secure her place in the UFC after a 1-2 start, so she is fighting for her roster spot.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Melissa Croden -118 / Tainara Lisboa -102	Tainara Lisboa by decision	55% (Slight Lean)
Spread	Croden -3.5 +140 / Lisboa +3.5 -195	Lisboa covers +3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -220 / Under 2.5 +170	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tainara Lisboa 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Lisbon's higher level of experience and technical proficiency, she is a slight favorite, but Croden's finishing instincts and home-field advantage make this a true coin-flip. Expect a competitive three-rounder with Lisboa likely edging a decision on the scorecards, given her experience and the step up in class for Croden. If Croden finds an early finish, as she has suggested is her gameplan, it would not be a surprise, but the odds and data tilt slightly toward Lisboa[3][5].

Predicted Score: Tainara Lisboa def. Melissa Croden by unanimous decision (29-28 x3).

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Match Analysis: Christian Eckerlin vs Ivica Trušček – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Lanxess Arena, Cologne, Germany

Game Overview

OKTAGON 78 features a main event between Germany's rising prospect Christian Eckerlin, fighting on home soil, and Croatia's battle-tested veteran Ivica 'Terror' Trušček, who boasts over 80 professional MMA bouts—a rare level of experience in the sport. Eckerlin is younger, perhaps faster, and carries the momentum of his undefeated record at home. Trušček, meanwhile, is known for his durability, fight IQ, and ability to finish fights (41 KOs/SUBs in 81+ bouts)[1][7]. The clash is seen as a litmus test for Eckerlin's potential against elite European competition, and a chance for Trušček to prove that veteran savvy can still trump youth and hype[4].

Key Factors to Consider

• Eckerlin is a rising, undefeated star in German MMA, with a loyal fanbase and home-cage advantage. Trušček is one of the most experienced active fighters in Europe, having competed at the highest levels for over 17 years and amassed 83+ professional fights[7]. His fight IQ and composure under pressure are key assets.
• No previous meetings between these fighters. This is a classic 'youth vs. experience' matchup in European MMA.
• No public reports of injuries or suspensions for either fighter ahead of the event.
• The event will be broadcast live on Germany's second-largest TV network (RTL), raising the stakes for both fighters and increasing the home-crowd effect for Eckerlin[4]. Trušček is accustomed to fighting on hostile territory and has stated he uses crowd energy as motivation[3].
• Eckerlin is fighting for national pride and to cement his status as a regional superstar. Trušček is motivated by proving that veteran experience and technique can still dominate, and he has explicitly stated his love for competition remains undiminished[3].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Eckerlin: +120 | Trušček: -140 (estimated, based on typical market for youth vs. experience in regional MMA)	Trušček by decision or late submission	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Trušček -1.5 rounds (estimated)	Trušček to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -150 | Under 2.5 rounds: +120 (estimated)	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is a close matchup with arguments for both sides. Eckerlin has youth, momentum, and home advantage; Trušček has vastly superior experience and a proven ability to finish fights. The fight could go either way, but Trušček’s durability, composure, and finishing ability give him a slight edge, especially if the bout goes beyond the early rounds. Expect a competitive, technical bout with Trušček potentially securing a late submission or decision win.

Predicted Score: Ivica Trušček def. Christian Eckerlin, Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Match Analysis: Maxwell Djantou Nana vs Justin Clarke – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3 (Venue not explicitly stated in sources)

Game Overview

This heavyweight MMA bout features Maxwell Djantou Nana, a 7-1 fighter from Cameroon based in France with a strong knockout record, facing Justin Clarke, an underdog with odds significantly against him. The fight is part of the PFL Africa 3 event on October 18, 2025.

Key Factors to Consider

• Maxwell Djantou Nana fights out of Manchester Top Team and holds a solid 7-1 record, showcasing a high KO ratio (57.1%) and a very low rate of decisions won (14.3%), indicating a strong finishing ability. Justin Clarke's detailed stats are not provided, but odds suggest he is the underdog.
• No previous matchup or direct fight history between Maxwell Djantou Nana and Justin Clarke is found in the available data, indicating this is likely their first encounter.
• No reported injuries or health concerns found for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The match is held at PFL Africa 3, which may provide some regional home advantage or familiarity for Maxwell Djantou Nana, who fights out of France but is originally from Cameroon, potentially near the event location.
• Maxwell Djantou Nana enters as the favorite likely motivated to maintain his strong winning streak and reinforce his heavyweight status. Justin Clarke appears motivated as the underdog to upset the favorite and improve his record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -500, away: 385	Maxwell Djantou Nana	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	over: 149, under: -170	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Maxwell Djantou Nana -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Maxwell Djantou Nana at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Maxwell Djantou Nana is predicted to win by knockout or technical knockout given his high KO finishing rate and strong record, with Justin Clarke as a long shot to upset.

Predicted Score: Maxwell Djantou Nana wins by KO/TKO in round 1 or early round 2

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Match Analysis: Shido Boris Esperanca vs Ayinda Octave – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Unknown

Game Overview

This MMA match features Shido Boris Esperanca versus the unbeaten Ayinda Octave. Esperanca, a PFL Africa semifinalist, is recognized as one of Africa's top mixed martial artists and has recently demonstrated quick submission skills advancing in welterweight semifinals. Ayinda Octave enters undefeated, making this a clash between proven experience and rising perfection.

Key Factors to Consider

• Esperanca brings strong experience and recent momentum with impressive submission finishes in the semifinals, showcasing advanced grappling. Octave, undefeated, has maintained a perfect record, indicating consistent high-level performances with likely striking and overall MMA versatility.
• No direct head-to-head history is recorded between Shido Boris Esperanca and Ayinda Octave, making this a fresh matchup without prior matchup data.
• No explicit injury reports are available for either fighter prior to this bout.
• No notable external factors such as venue bias or weather apply here. The match is at a neutral setting without a clear home advantage and no reported disruptions.
• Esperanca is motivated by advancing further in the welterweight semifinals and maintaining his status as a top African MMA competitor, while Octave aims to preserve his perfect undefeated record, providing strong psychological incentives for both.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca: -240, Ayinda Octave: 205	Shido Boris Esperanca	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Shido Boris Esperanca: -1.5, Ayinda Octave: +1.5	Esperanca by more than 1.5 rounds or dominant finish	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: 140, under_1.5_rounds: -160	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Shido Boris Esperanca at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shido Boris Esperanca favored to win due to greater experience, recent quick submission form, and stronger odds reflecting confidence by bookmakers.

Predicted Score: Victory for Shido Boris Esperanca via submission or decision within 2 rounds

Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Joffie Houlton – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3 (exact location not specified in sources)

Game Overview

Heavyweight clash between London’s Abraham Bably (6-2-0) and Stoke’s Joffie Houlton (8-4-0). Both fighters are coming off recent wins and have distinct stylistic strengths—Bably with a strong knockout game and Houlton with a balanced submission and knockout threat. Bably is the overwhelming favorite in betting markets, but Houlton has experience and a height/reach advantage[2][4].

Key Factors to Consider

• Bably has a 6-2 record (50% by KO, 33% by decision, no submissions)[2]. Houlton is 8-4 (37.5% by KO, 37.5% by submission, 0% by decision)[4]. Both are active and in form, but Bably’s fights have been at a higher level of competition.
• No prior meetings found between the two fighters.
• No injury reports for either fighter from publicly available sources.
• The bout is part of PFL Africa 3, a major regional event. No notable external factors (e.g., travel, referee bias) are reported.
• Both fighters are climbing the ranks. Bably is looking to cement his status as a rising contender, while Houlton could make a significant leap with an upset win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abraham Bably: -1200, Joffie Houlton: +750	Abraham Bably win	Very High (88%)
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds: +180, Under 1.5 Rounds: -210	Under 1.5 Rounds	High (75%)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abraham Bably -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Abraham Bably at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abraham Bably is favored to win by knockout given his superior finishing rate and the odds, but Joffie Houlton has the tools (submissions, height) to surprise if the fight goes past the first round. The moneyline, spread, and over/under all suggest Bably’s dominance and a likely early finish[2][4].

Predicted Score: Abraham Bably by KO/TKO (round 1)

Match Analysis: Alina Dalaslan vs Katharina Lehner – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: OKTAGON MMA event, location not specified

Game Overview

The fight between Alina Dalaslan and Katharina Lehner is a Bantamweight division main card bout under OKTAGON MMA scheduled for October 18, 2025, at 18:00 UTC. Dalaslan is undefeated with a 3-0 record, relying mostly on KO/TKO finishes, while Lehner is a veteran with a 9-7 record featuring mostly decision wins. Both fighters stand 170 cm tall with equal reach, but Dalaslan is notably younger at 25 years compared to Lehner's 35 years. Lehner brings significant experience from Bellator and Invicta, known for her aggressive striking and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alina Dalaslan has won all 3 of her professional fights, achieving all victories by KO/TKO, showing a strong finishing capability but with limited professional exposure. Katharina Lehner has a deeper professional background with 16 fights, 9 wins, and 7 losses, with most victories by decision, indicating a more grinding and tactical approach rather than finishes.
• No previous recorded fights or direct encounters between Alina Dalaslan and Katharina Lehner exist, making this their first matchup.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns have been indicated for either fighter at this time.
• The fight is part of the OKTAGON 78 card in the Bantamweight division in Cologne. No unusual external factors such as travel issues or venue concerns appear to impact either fighter.
• Dalasan being younger and undefeated is likely highly motivated to defend her status and prove herself against a seasoned veteran. Lehner as the more experienced fighter may be motivated to leverage her experience to overcome an undefeated but less tested opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alina Dalaslan: -2000, Katharina Lehner: 1000	Alina Dalaslan	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Alina Dalaslan: -1.5 rounds (-150), Katharina Lehner: +1.5 rounds (+130)	Alina Dalaslan to win by more than 1.5 rounds (likely early finish)	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds (likely early finish given Dalaslan's KO power)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alina Dalaslan -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alina Dalaslan at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alina Dalaslan is favored due to her undefeated KO/TKO streak and youth advantage, predicted to win primarily by knockout or technical knockout, but Katharina Lehner's experience and endurance pose a viable challenge, likely pushing the fight longer if not finished early.

Predicted Score: Alina Dalaslan wins by KO/TKO in round 2

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Match Analysis: Denis Górniak vs Kacper Paczóski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: KSW 111 event (venue not explicitly stated in sources)

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout features Denis Górniak versus Kacper Paczóski at KSW 111 on October 18, 2025, at 16:00 UTC. Górniak arrives with a record of 6 wins and 2 losses, while Paczóski is undefeated with 3 wins. Both fighters have shown knockout power, with Górniak having 5 KO/TKO wins and Paczóski 3. Górniak is the more experienced fighter with submissions in his résumé, whereas Paczóski has not secured any submissions. The fighters differ notably in reach and height, with Paczóski at 202 cm height and 79.5 cm reach versus Górniak's 183 cm and 72.1 cm respectively, which may influence striking dynamics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Denis Górniak's experience shines through with a 6-2 record including 5 KO/TKO and 2 submission wins, implying versatility and resilience. Kacper Paczóski, though undefeated (3-0), is less tested but shows knockout power and physical advantages in reach and height that may allow him to keep Górniak at a distance.
• There is no prior direct encounter between Denis Górniak and Kacper Paczóski recorded, so historical head-to-head data is absent, making this a first-time meeting which emphasizes preparation and style matchups.
• No reports of injuries or weight issues were found for either fighter ahead of the match, indicating both are presumably in full health and ready.
• The fight taking place at KSW 111, a well-established promotion, may add pressure but also motivation. No weather or travel issues reported. Both fighters compete under similar conditions with no outsider disruptions noted.
• Denis Górniak may be motivated to cement his rank and overcome a couple of past losses, while Paczóski looks to maintain his undefeated streak and capitalize on his physical advantages.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Denis Górniak: +110, Kacper Paczóski: -130, Draw: +2500	Kacper Paczóski	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Denis Górniak -1.5: +150, Kacper Paczóski +1.5: -170	Kacper Paczóski +1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds: -110, Under 1.5 Rounds: -110	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Denis Górniak is favored to win by a narrow margin based on his experience, finishing ability, and submission skill, despite Paczóski's size and undefeated status. Expect Górniak to find openings for a late finish or control on the ground.

Predicted Score: Kacper Paczóski wins by decision or late-round TKO

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Match Analysis: Yabna N'Tchalá vs Emilios Dassi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: BK Arena, Kigali, Rwanda

Game Overview

The MMA welterweight match between Yabna N'Tchalá and Emilios Dassi is part of the Professional Fighters League Africa 3 semifinals scheduled for October 18, 2025, at the BK Arena in Kigali. Both fighters have advanced through the tournament to meet in this crucial bout, which will determine who progresses to the finals in the PFL Africa welterweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yabna N'Tchalá has shown strong performance in the PFL Africa tournament with a solid record in welterweight fights, utilizing aggressive striking and good ground control. Emilios Dassi also presents a wary opponent with a balanced skill set, though less documented against top-tier competition compared to N'Tchalá.
• There are no recorded previous encounters between Yabna N'Tchalá and Emilios Dassi, making this a fresh matchup where tactical adaptations during the fight will be key.
• No current injuries or fitness concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of this match, indicating both are in optimal condition for competition.
• The fight takes place at the BK Arena in Kigali, Rwanda, which may favor Yabna N'Tchalá given his possible familiarity with the local environment. The atmosphere and crowd support could influence fight momentum. No unusual external factors like weather or travel issues are noted.
• As a semifinal bout in the prestigious PFL Africa tournament, motivation levels for both fighters are expected to be high, with significant incentives to reach the finals and increase international exposure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	yabna_n_tchala: -165, emilios_dassi: +140, draw: +1200	Yabna N'Tchalá to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	yabna_n_tchala_-1.5: -110, emilios_dassi_+1.5: -110	Yabna N'Tchalá -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -120, under_2.5_rounds: +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Yabna N'Tchalá's superior documented performance in the tournament and skill set advantages, he is the favorite to win, expected to control striking exchanges and possibly secure a finish either by ground or strikes in the later rounds.

Predicted Score: Yabna N'Tchalá wins by decision or late-round TKO within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: David Zoula vs Jan Masek – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 18, 2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not Specified

Game Overview

This is a featherweight Prelims fight between David Zoula and Jan Masek, part of the KSW event.

Key Factors to Consider

• David Zoula is favored to win with odds of -165, indicating stronger recent performance.
• No prior head-to-head data available.
• No reported injuries.
• External factors such as crowd support and event environment may influence the fight.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but David Zoula's favorites position could affect the psychological aspect.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-165 for David Zoula, +125 for Jan Masek	David Zoula	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	David Zoula -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

David Zoula is predicted to win this fight.

Predicted Score: Cannot be accurately predicted for MMA fights.