Match Analysis: AS Monaco vs Žalgiris – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: AS Monaco Home Court
Game Overview
The Euroleague basketball match between AS Monaco and Žalgiris Kaunas features two teams with a competitive historical record, where Monaco holds a slight edge with 5 wins to Žalgiris' 3 across 8 encounters since 2021. Both teams show moderate scoring averages, with AS Monaco averaging around 81.6 points per game offensively and conceding 79.5 points defensively, while Žalgiris averages 79.5 points scored and concedes 81.6. Recent form favors Monaco, who won their last 5 games, although they struggle against the spread. Žalgiris has a losing recent form but demonstrates a higher over points percentage. The game is expected to be competitive with Monaco favored by bookmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
- AS Monaco is currently in strong form with a 5-game winning streak, averaging 80.6 points per game but allowing high opponent scoring at 87.4 points per game. Žalgiris, conversely, has only managed 1 win in their last 5 games while scoring a slightly higher 82.4 PPG and conceding 82.8 PPG. Monaco's defense appears less effective recently, while Žalgiris struggles overall but has a decent offensive output.
- Out of 8 Euroleague matches since 2021, Monaco leads with 5 wins versus Žalgiris' 3. Their points per game are close: Monaco 81.6 to Žalgiris 79.5, with a balanced win percentage against the spread at 50%. Historical betting data shows 62.5% of their encounters going over total points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring match.
- Current data does not provide explicit injury reports for either team, implying both squads may have access to their regular rosters for this matchup.
- Playing at home, AS Monaco benefits from familiar surroundings and crowd support which often provides a competitive boost. No other significant external factors such as extreme travel fatigue or scheduling congestion have been reported.
- AS Monaco, sitting higher in the Euroleague standings (4th with 18-12 record), will be motivated to maintain momentum early in the season. Žalgiris, ranked 13th with a 14-16 record, may be motivated to prove themselves against a top team and reverse recent poor form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Monaco: -356, Žalgiris: 285 | AS Monaco to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | AS Monaco -7.5: -115, Žalgiris +7.5: -105 | AS Monaco -7.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 165.5: -110, Under 165.5: -110 | Over 165.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Monaco -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 165.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 165.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AS Monaco to win by covering the spread of -7.5 points. The matchup favors a moderately high-scoring game, but defensive lapses on both sides suggest the total will likely go just over 165.5 points.
Predicted Score: AS Monaco 85 – 77 Žalgiris