Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-25
- Time: 6:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates in a Major League Baseball matchup featuring two promising young pitchers: Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski (2-0, 1.64 ERA) and Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes (4-6, 1.85 ERA). The Brewers have been strong at home with a 24-16 record and have won five of their last six games. The Pirates, struggling on the road with a 12-28 record, have just ended a two-game winning streak. The Brewers lead the recent head-to-head series, winning six of the last ten games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee Brewers have a solid home record (24-16) and are currently on a five-win streak in their last six games. The Pirates have a poor road record (12-28) and are below .500 overall (32-49). Pitching matchups favor the Brewers on paper but the Pirates' Skenes is considered one of the best starters in baseball.
- Milwaukee has won six of the last ten meetings against Pittsburgh, indicating a recent upper hand in this matchup.
- No specific injuries were reported in the available data for either team that would significantly impact this game.
- The game is played at Milwaukee’s home ballpark, American Family Field, providing a home-field advantage. Weather and other factors seem stable with no adverse conditions reported.
- The Brewers are motivated to build on a strong recent run and capitalize on home advantage. The Pirates are looking to overcome their poor road form and extend their brief winning streak.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: -112, Pittsburgh Pirates: -104 | Pittsburgh Pirates to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Milwaukee Brewers: 1.5 -200, Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 164 | Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over: 6.5 -115, Under: 6.5 -105 | Under 6.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 6.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
While Milwaukee is favored on the moneyline due to home advantage and recent form, the superior pitching quality and matchup of Paul Skenes make the Pittsburgh Pirates a strong contender. The most confident prediction leans towards a close game with the Pirates potentially pulling an upset on the moneyline. The total runs are expected to stay around 6.5 given the strong pitching on both sides.
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4 – 3 Milwaukee Brewers