Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles (43-50) host the Miami Marlins (42-51) in a closely matched MLB game at Camden Yards. Both teams have similar records this season, making this a competitive matchup with the Orioles slightly favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 games and are 5-0 against the spread in that stretch. The Marlins have had mixed results lately. Orioles' home games have seen a slight over trend with 23 of 45 games going over total runs.
- This season’s series is split, with Orioles winning one game 5-2 and losing another 0-6 against the Marlins, showing some volatility in outcomes.
- No critical injuries reported impacting starting lineups or pitching staffs for either team.
- Weather at Camden Yards is warm at 84°F with low rain chances (11%) and moderate wind (5 mph), conditions favorable for scoring.
- Both teams sit below .500 and are fighting for momentum in the midseason stretch, with Orioles looking to capitalize at home to build confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles -120, Miami Marlins +102 | Baltimore Orioles | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 at -196, Miami Marlins +1.5 at +162 | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9 runs at -120, Under 9 runs at -102 | Under 9 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baltimore Orioles to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the game to go under 9 total runs.
Predicted Score: Baltimore Orioles 4 – 2 Miami Marlins