Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-27
- Time: 5:41 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds host the Tampa Bay Rays in a closely matched MLB contest. Both teams have similar overall records around .500, with the Rays slightly favored. Starting pitchers are Brady Singer for the Reds and Shane Baz for the Rays. The betting markets show tight moneyline and spread odds, with an over/under total at 9.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Reds carry a 3-game winning streak and hold a 55-50 record, while the Rays are 53-52 and have lost 5 of their last 6 games. Tampa Bay's pitching staff ERA is 3.89, with an offense scoring 487 runs this season. Reds have a solid 53-46 record against the spread.
- Recent head-to-head series has favored the Reds with two wins in the last three games, where the Rays scored below average runs. The teams are evenly matched overall based on win probabilities (Rays 51%, Reds 49%).
- No significant injuries reported affecting starting pitchers or key hitters for either team.
- Game played at Reds' home park, Great American Ball Park, which is historically a hitter-friendly park but poses no abnormal weather disruptions. July weather generally stable.
- The Reds are on a positive momentum streak and motivated to extend their winning run, while the Rays are looking to break their recent losing skid.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -102, Tampa Bay Rays: -116 | Cincinnati Reds | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds +1.5: -164, Tampa Bay Rays -1.5: 136 | Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 9.5: -104, Under 9.5: -118 | Under 9.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cincinnati Reds at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds win; Spread: Reds +1.5; Over/Under: Under 9.5 runs
Predicted Score: Reds 5, Rays 4