Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-27
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks in an NL matchup with both teams having losing records this season. The Pirates are slight favorites at home against a Diamondbacks team looking to rebound from recent losses and secure a series win.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Pirates hold a 43-62 record and have been underwhelming as a favorite, winning only 46.2% of games as odds-on favorites. Arizona is at 51-54 but has struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5 games. The Diamondbacks have a better run production overall but their pitching staff has a high ERA.
- Arizona and Pittsburgh split the first two games of this series with low scoring results (1-0, 2-0). Zac Gallen has performed moderately against Pittsburgh with a 4.40 ERA in recent starts, while Pirates starter Paul Skenes shows a strong 1.50 ERA lifetime versus Arizona.
- No notable injuries reported affecting key starters or lineups for either team at this time.
- Game played at PNC Park, a neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly stadium. Weather conditions are standard and unlikely to heavily impact scoring.
- Pirates aim to capitalize on home field to improve a poor record. Diamondbacks look to halt losing streak and maintain a playoff push in the NL West, increasing motivation despite recent struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh -158 / Arizona +134 | Pittsburgh Pirates | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Pittsburgh -1.5 132 / Arizona +1.5 -160 | Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -114 / Under 7.5 -106 | Under 7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pittsburgh Pirates to win moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the total to go under 7.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Pirates 4 – Diamondbacks 2