Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park in a late-season MLB matchup. Both teams are competing near the end of their regular seasons, with the Red Sox holding a slight winning record and playing at home, while the Tigers are slightly below .500 on the road. The starting pitchers are Chris Mize (14-6, 3.91 ERA) for the Red Sox and Kyle Harrison (1-1, 4.56 ERA) for the Tigers. This game could impact postseason positioning and momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Red Sox have a home record of 46-32, showing strong home performance. They entered this game with an 87-72 overall record. The Tigers have an 86-73 overall record but are 40-38 away, indicating moderate success on the road. Recent form shows the Tigers split a two-game series at Tampa Bay with a win and loss. Red Sox pitching is reliable with Mize having a solid season, while Tigers' Harrison has limited starts and a higher ERA.
- The teams have been competitive in recent games. The Tigers are slightly underdogs at Fenway but have kept games close. Last meetings in this series are not detailed, but the matchup appears balanced with a slight edge to the home team due to home advantage and pitching matchups.
- No specific injury reports were found indicating major players missing from either side, suggesting both teams can field close to their full-strength rosters.
- The game is played at Fenway Park, a pitcher-friendly but historically hitter-friendly ballpark due to short outfield fences. Weather factors not specified, but September weather in Boston is generally mild. Motivational impact includes the Japanese Celebration promotion, possibly increasing crowd engagement.
- With both teams near the postseason threshold, motivation is high to secure wins late in the regular season. The Red Sox have a slight advantage playing at home and likely seek momentum for playoffs. Tigers are motivated to upset and improve their away record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boston Red Sox: -120, Detroit Tigers: 102 | Boston Red Sox to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Boston Red Sox: +1.5 at -200, Detroit Tigers: -1.5 at 164 | Detroit Tigers to cover -1.5 run spread | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | over 8.5: -122, under 8.5: 100 | Under 8.5 total runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Boston Red Sox at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox are favored to win this game based on stronger home performance, pitching advantage, and current odds. The game is expected to be competitive with a final total score near 8.5 runs, leaning toward under due to pitching strengths.
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 3 – 5 Boston Red Sox