Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:20 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals in a late September MLB regular-season game. The Cubs have a superior record and hosting advantage, while the Cardinals are struggling with a sub-.500 away performance. The starting pitchers are Jameson Taillon for the Cubs (11-7, 3.68 ERA) and Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals (8-4, 4.52 ERA).
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs hold a strong 91-70 overall record with good home performance (49-31), while the Cardinals are 78-83 overall and weaker on the road (34-46). Cubs have better pitching and more consistent late-season form.
- Recent meetings favor the Cubs, who have outscored the Cardinals with solid offensive output, especially at home. The Cubs have won multiple recent games against the Cardinals this season.
- No major injuries reported for either side affecting starting pitchers or key hitters, maintaining relatively full-strength rosters.
- Weather conditions at Wrigley Field are normal for late September with no significant impact expected. The Cubs benefit from playing at home with strong fan support.
- The Cubs are pushing for playoff positioning, motivated to secure wins down the stretch. Cardinals have less playoff pressure and have shown inconsistency, possibly lowering motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cubs -169, Cardinals +144 | Chicago Cubs | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Cubs -1.5 at +128, Cardinals +1.5 at -151 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8 -111, Under 8 -110 | Over 8 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs to win outright (moneyline), cover the -1.5 run spread, and the total runs to go over 8.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 – St. Louis Cardinals 3